In national polls, presidential candidate Mitt Romney has been stuck in fourth place for months, trailing GOP rivals Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and even the struggling John McCain.
Yet most political analysts regard Romney as the most formidable Republican threat to Giuliani, who has always been the front-runner in national GOP polls. That’s because Romney is leading the polls in the crucial, early-contest states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
If he wins those states in about 10 weeks from now, Romney hopes the ensuing publicity will push him to high finishes in a flurry of other state primaries that culminate Feb. 5.
“If you look at the experience of other people running for president, from John Kerry to Bill Clinton, going all the way back to Jimmy Carter, they were nowhere in the national polls until they started doing well in the early contests,” Romney said in response to questions from The Examiner on the campaign trail. “And so someone like myself has to do well in the early contests.
“That doesn’t mean I have to win,” he added, eager to lower expectations. “It means I have to do well. And that catapults you into a more public posture where people take a look, and if they like what they see, then you’re going to rise pretty sharply.”
But Romney’s Mormonism could slow such a rise, even if he wins the early states. Polls show a significant number of Americans are reluctant to support a candidate who belongs to the Mormon church, which some voters regard as a cult.
Calling himself a “relative unknown” outside of Massachusetts, where he was governor until January, Romney said he is unfazed by the rise of Thompson in national polls. The actor and former Tennessee senator did not declare his candidacy until last month.
“At this stage the national polls reflect awareness and, if you will, whether there’s a positive association with someone,” Romney said. “And an esteemed actor who’s been putting bad guys away on TV every week is going to have a good awareness and a generally positive perception associated with him.”
Romney has run a fairly disciplined campaign, although he seemed to stumble in a recent GOP debate by saying he would consult his “attorneys” before taking possible action against Iran. Critics said it made Romney, a former CEO, look too cautious.
That caution can be seen on the campaign trail as well. While answering questions from voters in New Hampshire last week, Romney was pressed by a woman in the audience to commit to certain campaign appearances that she proposed.
“My scheduling team tells me which ones I get to go to,” he said, shrugging. “Frankly I go where I’m told to go. I don’t select my own schedule.”
