Will Republicans hold the Senate in 2018?
Nobody knows the answer to that question with certainty right now. There are simply too many moving parts—a terrible map for Democrats, a horrible national environment for Republicans, presidential approval polls that could move up or down, primaries on both sides and more.
But a survey from Republican pollster OH Predictive Insights helps shed some light on one of these moving parts. They polled Arizona, a state that could be pivotal in the battle for Senate control.
There are two important, interrelated questions in this race: who will win the GOP nomination and who will win the general election.
The Predictive Insights survey gives us helpful information on both. It shows Kelli Ward ahead of Rep. Martha McSally, 42 percent to 34 percent. Republicans who are hoping to hold the seat (or Democrats who want to win it) could see this result in a glass-half-empty or glass-half-full way.
The glass-half-empty take for the GOP (and the glass half full take for Democrats) would be that Ward, a Trump-friendly candidate with some general election baggage, is ahead even after sitting Sen. Jeff Flake left the race. Many on the right were relieved to see Flake bow out: Ward was outpolling him, and his exit provided an opportunity for a stronger Republican to run instead. But Ward may win the primary anyway, saddling Republicans with a potentially problematic candidate.
The glass-half-full take for some Republicans would be that McSally, who hasn’t officially declared her Senate candidacy (though she told her House colleagues she’s running) is already within striking distance of Ward. It’s also worth noting that other Arizona Republicans are actively exploring or at least thinking about a bid, and their entrance could scramble the race.
The poll also shows Democratic Rep. Krysten Sinema (who will likely win her primary) leading both McSally and Ward by small margins in a general election contest (despite a large GOP advantage in the sample). The 2018 general election is still a long way away, but it’s possible that the national environment could push this normally red state to elect a Democrat. A September Morning Consult poll showed that Trump’s approval rating is underwater in Arizona (42.2 percent approval and 51.1 percent disapproval). And a Senate election simulator I worked on at RealClearPolitics suggests that if Trump’s approval remains near its current level (38.3 percent) and neither party nominates a problematic candidate, the Democratic candidate would have a substantial edge (winning in more than 80 percent of simulations).
Obviously there’s time for the dynamics of both the primary or the general election in Arizona to change. We simply don’t know who is going to win. But the Arizona primary is worth watching – it’s important for assessing the Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate and for understanding the internal ideological fights in the Republican Party.
