Nations’ plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stop global warming won’t come close to curbing what many call the biggest threat of a generation, according to a new report by a consortium of research groups.
The Climate Action Tracker was released just as President Obama was wrapping up his climate action tour in Alaska and as international leaders began to assemble in Bonn, Germany, to begin hashing out the details of a deal to cut emissions. World leaders will gather in Paris at the end of the year to try to finalize a worldwide agreement.
Many scientists say that greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are increasing the Earth’s temperature, leading to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, flooding and drought.
“The climate targets so far submitted to the [United Nations] by governments collectively lead to global emissions far above the levels needed to hold warming to below 2 [degrees Celsius],” according to the group, which is comprised of leading climate researchers Climate Analytics, Ecofys, New Climate Institute and Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research.
The goal of the Paris talks, under the auspices of the U.N., is to reach a deal that will set countries on a course to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to reduce warming by 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.
The consortium evaluated a cross-section of the emission reduction plans submitted to the U.N. ahead of the Paris talks to make its assessment. It says 65 percent of global emissions are covered by the plans, called “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.” As of Sept. 1, 29 governments had submitted their plans.
The consortium assessed 15 of them, covering 64.5 percent of global emissions. It rated seven “inadequate,” six “medium” and two as “sufficient,” it said.
“The projected emissions pathway from the combined [plans] also show a very different situation in 2025 than in 2030” — two of the interim target years expected in the Paris agreement, the report says. “If the current 2030 [plans] are locked in, holding warming below 2 degrees Celsius would become almost infeasible, as [carbon dioxide] emission reduction rates would need to exceed 5 percent a year after 2030, and would make holding warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius almost impossible.”
In the run-up to Paris, there have been rumblings that things aren’t going smoothly, and the negotiations that just began in Bonn are no different. Reuters reports that the Bonn climate meeting began “divided,” although hopeful that something can be worked out by the time countries convene in Paris. Delegates said they have to move faster to be able to finalize a deal by December.
The nations gathered in Bonn are trying to winnow down an 83-page draft agreement into a workable plan, according to Reuters. “We’re closer to an agreement,” Elina Bardram, head of the European Commission delegation, told Reuters. “But there’s a lot still to be done.” Reuters says Bardram’s comments are meant to dissuade doubt that the march to Paris resembles a past deal in Copenhagen, Denmark, that floundered in 2009.
Obama met with foreign ministers and other global leaders in Alaska earlier this week to rally them toward success in Paris. The GOP leadership, meanwhile, is critical of the president’s climate agenda, saying his actions are meant to secure a legacy for himself at the risk of the U.S. economy.
Republican lawmakers say the centerpiece of the U.S. plan to reduce its emissions to meet the U.N. goal is a set of strict regulations that will cause consumer energy bills to rise, while destabilizing the electric grid. The president says those are just scare tactics, used to undermine a plan to reduce emissions that is flexible and is designed to reduce energy bills, not increase them.
