Hillary Clinton’s huge win in South Carolina, bigger than the polling averages predicted, is the latest reminder of how diversity is destiny in today’s Democratic Party.
Total Democratic turnout in South Carolina was nearly 200,000 voters lower than in 2008. Yet Clinton’s raw vote total among blacks nearly matched President Obama’s.
Eight years ago, Obama won the South Carolina primary on the strength of the black vote despite coming in third among white voters with just 24 percent. This year, the share of the Democratic primary electorate that was black was even higher (61 percent) and delivered her a landslide victory even as Bernie Sanders won white men 56 percent to 44 percent.
Clinton wound up winning 86 percent of the black vote, beating Sanders by a 72-point margin. She won 89 percent of black women. If the vote breakdown is anything close to this on Super Tuesday, she will bulldoze the Vermont socialist on the way to the Democratic nomination.
Sanders is more like fellow Vermonter Howard Dean than President Obama. Dean excited young progressives in 2004, running in support of universal healthcare and against the Iraq war. But his fanbase was almost entirely white in a party that is increasingly black and Latino.
The difference between Obama’s successful progressive insurgency against the Democratic establishment — using many of the same themes and strategies as Dean — Dean’s losing one was the engagement of black voters.
Unlike Obama, Sanders couldn’t be the first black president. Neither can Clinton, with apologies to Toni Morrison. But the senator has never recovered from his early lack of connection to the black community despite his 1960s civil-rights activism (Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., a Clinton supporter and civil-rights icon says he doesn’t recall seeing Sanders during that struggle) and more recent efforts to broaden his appeal beyond young white liberals.
“Sanders failed to improve *at all* among SC black voters even after recognizing the problem and incorporating racial justices themes,” tweeted MSNBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki after the results came in.
Indeed, looking at the exit polls you would think that Sanders was the former Goldwater girl rather than Clinton. It is hard to believe that just eight years ago, people were accusing Bill Clinton of making racially insensitive comments on the stump and of minimizing South Carolina as a place where black candidates like Obama and Jesse Jackson win.
This time around Hillary Clinton enjoyed the support of influential Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., and placed racial issues at the center of her agenda. She even suggested that Sanders’ single-minded focus on Wall Street and the campaign finance system ignored the concerns of African-American voters.
“We have to begin by facing up to the reality of systemic racism,” she said. “These are not just problems of equality, they are problems of racial inequality.” In this telling, Sanders was guilty of treating racism as a matter of economics.
When Sanders pivoted and began talking about Black Lives Matter and criminal justice reform, Clinton shot back, “Any view of black America that focuses exclusively on crime or poverty is missing so much.”
Black and Latino voters have in recent decades been among the most loyal Democrats. They are increasingly becoming the most important decision-makers in the party. In South Carolina, a white candidate like Clinton was the main beneficiary. But as longtime Clinton supporter Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel can attest, the growing influence of minority voters can also lead to competitive primaries for white Democrats.
Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., announced his retirement from Congress last week. Rangel has also faced spirited primaries as black and Hispanic Democrats in his changing district compete for influence.
America’s changing demographics are often mentioned as a challenge for the Republican Party. Diversity challenges and benefits Democrats in a different way, as Bernie Sanders learned Saturday night.
