Fast-rising Republican presidential contender Marco Rubio could see his political career come to a screeching halt Tuesday with a loss to Donald Trump in Florida.
Rubio, 44, jumped from the West Miami City Council to the Florida legislature to the U.S. Senate to presidential front-runner in the span of 18 years. The son of poor Cuban immigrants built a political network practically from scratch, succeeding on shrewd positioning and, occasionally, pure will.
But a string of defeats in the March primaries has hobbled his 2016 White House bid, and public opinion polls now predict that Trump will deliver the knockout blow. Rubio losing his home state primary to the New York celebrity businessman wouldn’t simply cripple his presidential campaign.
It could significantly hamper the movement of Republicans and conservatives who are hoping to block Trump from the nomination.
“I intend to win Florida. It’s a tough fight. I mean, look, we’re experiencing in Florida what the country is seeing, which is a very unusual election cycle,” Rubio said in an interview on CNN. “I can tell you this, the only one that can beat Donald Trump in Florida is me.”
In addition to Florida, primaries are scheduled in Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. A total of 358 delegates to the Republican nominating convention in Cleveland are on the ballot, and whether or not Rubio, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Ohio Gov. John Kasich can block Trump from padding his lead on Tuesday could determine the course of the nomination fight.
Trump, the clear front-runner in the race, leads with 460 delegates; Cruz is second with 370, followed by Rubio with 163 and Kasich with 63. The first candidate to 1,237 delegates wins the nomination.
Forces on the right who have aligned against Trump got involved in the campaign only in the last several weeks. Since then they have sunk millions of dollars in television advertising into Florida and Ohio to deny Trump from scooping up the 165 delegates that will be awarded in those two states on a winner-take-all basis.
“There are paths to stopping Trump through victory or defeat in Florida tomorrow,” said Tim Miller, a spokesman for Our Principles PAC, a super PAC dedicated to beating Trump that is funded and run by Republican operatives. “More important is how the delegate math looks considering all 5 states and whether a non-Trump candidate can demonstrate momentum going into Arizona, Utah and Wisconsin.”
Rubio, the former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, was elected to the Senate in 2010.
He ran in the Republican primary despite having to go up against Charlie Crist, at the time the Sunshine State’s popular GOP sitting governor. On the verge of losing the primary to Rubio, Crist bolted the party and ran for Senate as an independent. Rubio won the general election handily over Crist and the Democrat in the race and emerged a Tea Party hero and budding national Republican leader.
Now, a presidential campaign that began with so much promise, and whose prospects remained bright just two weeks ago, is on the ropes. Recent polls show the senator losing handily to the real estate mogul and reality television star. In the RealClearPolitics.com average, Trump led Rubio 43 percent to 24 percent.
At this point, Rubio winning Florida would shock political observers. Presumably, Rubio would suspend his campaign if he loses, although the question of what happens to his 163 delegates and keeping them out of Trump’s hands might motivate a different course of action.
Rubio’s supporters continue to project optimism about the path forward, despite the data. His losses this month and underdog position in Florida have cost Rubio support in other states voting on Tuesday and that have yet to vote.
“Marco continues to be the one candidate that in spite of everything else going on around him he is still appealing to our better angels,” said Adam Hasner, a Rubio supporter who served with the senator when both were in the legislature. “Isn’t that what we want in a president?”
Rubio is retiring from the Senate when his term expires early next year. Losing his home state in a presidential run could mar any future attempt at a political comeback. But he is young enough to recover from falling short in his first presidential bid. Many past Republican nominees, President Reagan among them, survived similar setbacks.
Republican operatives with experience running campaigns in Florida say it has proven over time to be a very forgiving state to losing candidates. Among the politicians who lost there before they won are former Gov. Jeb Bush, who lost his first bid before going on to win two terms, and Sen. Bill Nelson. The Democrat lost his run for governor in 1990, but won a Senate seat 10 years later.
“Florida has traditionally been a state where politics is as competitive as anywhere in the country,” a Republican strategist with Florida ties said. “They’ve not punished people for losing.”
