Mitt Romney really stirred things up.
An already wide-open Republican presidential primary has become even more fluid since Romney began flirting with a third White House bid. Far from crowding others out and allowing the GOP’s 2012 nominee to divide the spoils with presumed frontrunner Jeb Bush, Romney’s entrance into the fray has temporarily frozen many big GOP donors and experienced operatives, making the rest of the field more competitive.
“The Mitt announcement has thrown a serious wrench in things. Not sure that anyone is jumping on board with Mitt, but it has slowed the progress of the others,” said a Republican fundraiser who, like most GOP operatives interviewed for this story, requested anonymity to discuss the topic.
Bush’s progress has hardly been stalled.
The as-yet unannounced candidate is in the midst of an aggressive, 60-events-in-45-days fundraising blitz for his political action committee and super PAC, both named Right to Rise, which has the support of much-sought-after Republican bundlers. And just Thursday, the Des Moines Register reported that the former Florida governor’s political operation has secured the services of Iowa GOP operative David Kochel, who served as a senior Romney adviser in 2012.
But knowledgeable Republican sources say that many alumni of Romney’s 2012 campaign, both donors and operatives, have thus far honored the former Massachusetts governor’s request to hold off from joining the political teams of other potential 2016 candidates while he spends some weeks determining his future. A Romney source called their response “encouraging” as the 2012 nominee gauges support for a third campaign.
Romney’s core community of donors and political operatives, cultivated over two presidential runs, has proven loyal. They won’t stay on the sidelines indefinitely, however. Romney probably has two more weeks to join the race or cut bait if he doesn’t want to lose their services to his potential competitors, a Romney 2012 alumnus estimated.
“A lot of Romney loyalists are frozen because they don’t want to go against him. But the freeze will only last so long,” this Republican operative said.
In the meantime, the net result of Romney’s presence has been to give Bush more competition and boost the standing of every other potential 2016 Republican — Establishment and conservative alike. For instance, some Republican donors are now taking a second look at New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, if for no other reason than supporting him keeps them from having to choose between Bush and Romney.
The Bush-Romney competition allows Republicans who want to be active in the primary campaign to more easily support the true candidate of their choice. They can proceed without fear that spurning the two heavyweights will lead to political reprisals later, since neither can claim to be the inevitable nominee. Tea Party-affiliated candidates benefit — because suddenly, the jockeying for position is spread among all sectors of the 2016 field, not just theirs.
Money and support, rather than being divided among Bush and Romney if the 2012 nominee runs, becomes potentially more diffuse and available to multiple candidates. Even if Romney doesn’t end up running, his ability to slow the process down could be enough to cripple the Bush mystique as the primary campaign develops over the coming months.
“Mitt is essentially a barometer of what’s going on with donors and voters. Mitt was a signal that Jeb was not able to sew it up from the onset,” said a Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any potential candidate.
Team Bush isn’t worried.
The former Florida governor has in short order put together a deeper, more talented and active political operation than any other Republican considering a 2016 bid. Bush has access to his family’s well-resourced political network, with hubs in the two biggest Republican-leaning states: Florida and Texas.
Romney still has the stain of losing a race to President Obama in 2012 that was considered very winnable — a loss blamed on the nominee’s inept performance on the stump and mismanaged political operation. Critics say that Romney 3.0 is built entirely on the 2012 nominee’s notion that voters will vote for him in 2016 because they regret his loss four years previous.
Bush supporters believe the party, and particularly the major players in the GOP’s governing wing, will choose a candidate who doesn’t have Romney’s baggage of trying to prove his conservatism or authenticity and who runs a future-oriented campaign, despite his last name. Bush is the brother and son of the 43rd and 41st presidents, respectively.
“No one in Bush World is losing sleep over Romney’s 2016 decision one way or the other,” said a GOP operative who backs Bush. “It would be great to have his active support or his counsel as an elder statesman in the party. If he chooses to run, we’ll just beat him.”
