The campaigns of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battled for every vote throughout the commonwealth Sunday, but kept their eyes firmly fixed on the suburbs of Northern Virginia, which likely hold the key to the state’s critical delegates.
Clinton stumped in Roanoke on Sunday, part of the state’s southwest region where she could find favor with blue-collar workers, said Dan Palazzolo, professor of political science at the University of Richmond.
The region is overwhelmingly white, and has one of the largest numbers of residents per capita living below the poverty line in the state, according to data compiled by the University of Virginia.
In the 2004 Democratic primary, Sen. John Edwards, who ran on a populist, anti-poverty message, did best along the western edge of the commonwealth, though he still lost statewide to Sen. John Kerry.
Obama has also done well with rural voters in past primaries, said Palazzolo, and has the advantage of Gov. Tim Kaine’s support. University towns like Blacksburg and Charlottesville are also expected to break for the Illinois senator due to his appeal to young, student voters.
The Illinois senator is expected to score heavily in Richmond and other parts of the state with a significant black population. That could carry Obama to victory in the southeastern and eastern portions of Virginia.
Clinton, who has fared well among Hispanics, will need to capture that vote in Northern Virginia to win the state, said Palazzolo. Virginia is about one-fifth black and only about 6 percent
Hispanic, according to 2006 census data.
Of the state’s 103 Democratic delegates, 54 are allocated by congressional district. The three districts that contain Northern Virginia hold 18 of those, making down-state areas crucial in securing a victory on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, Glen Sussman, professor of political science at Old Dominion University, said the big population centers in the northern part of the state will remains both candidates’ focus.
“I think both of them are probably going to spend more of their resources in the metropolitan areas and Northern Virginia, and I think hope for the best when it comes to rural votes,” Sussman said.
