Now that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has won enough primary delegates to make him the likely GOP nominee, party leaders are beginning to scrutinize the impact he may have on House and Senate candidates who will appear lower on the November ballot.
Republicans in the Senate are particularly worried. With 24 seats up for re-election, the GOP’s brief majority could end if enough Democratic candidates prevail in key swing races. Democrats have only 10 seats up for re-election.
Will Trump help his down-ballot GOP candidates, or hurt them?
“The reality is, we just don’t know,” Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the Cook Political Report, told the Washington Examiner.
In typical presidential election cycles, prognosticators use poll numbers on presidential candidates to determine whether they will be a help or a hindrance down ballot.
President Obama’s 2008 candidacy, for example, was a huge advantage for Democratic candidates running for lower offices who benefited from his charismatic and highly popular candidacy.
But Trump, while popular with many primary voters, remains a question mark. And despite his primary and caucus victories, Trump’s poll numbers have alarmed party leaders.
His disapproval rating among voters averages 61 percent, according to RealClearPolitics, a potentially devastating number for the general election lineup.
And the recent disturbances at Trump rallies, while arguably sparked by outsiders, could reflect poorly on his candidacy, say pollsters.
Republican Party leaders, already at odds with Trump over his bombastic style, have privately discussed distancing themselves from the business mogul if he wins the nomination.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., confirmed to reporters recently that he privately told his rank-and-file GOP senators they would drop Trump “like a hot rock,” should he prevail.
“The general feeling is that Trump will be toxic and no congressional Republicans will want to be photographed with him,” Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos told the Examiner.
Duffy advised Senate candidates to “develop separate messaging,” from a Trump presidential campaign.
But Duffy and Paleologos both point out that Trump could be a wild card nominee when it comes to the rest of the ballot. He’s got high disapproval ratings, yet he’s attracting thousands of new voters to the polls and generating enthusiasm that could benefit the GOP ticket. Trump is also winning in major primary contests critical to the general election, defying the expectations of many seasoned political observers.
“Since Trump announced his candidacy, the dynamics continue to change and Trump is breaking the glass ceiling others have built over his head,” Paleologos said.
Republican Senate candidates in tough races “may need the new voters Trump is bringing to the polls.”
Democrats are eager to use Trump’s negatives against vulnerable GOP Senate incumbents.
In New Hampshire, where freshman Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte is in a toss-up race against Gov. Maggie Hassan, Democratic operatives are working to tie her to Trump’s rhetoric.
“The nation has looked on in horror recently as violence at Donald Trump campaign events has escalated, but so far Kelly Ayotte has remained silent and indicated that [she still] intends to support the GOP front-runner,” Melissa Miller, a spokesperson for the New Hampshire Democratic Party, said in an email blast.
Clarus Research Group President Ron Faucheux said the fate of down-ballot Republicans may ultimately rest not with Trump’s campaign style, but his own success in November.
“Any Republican presidential candidate, be it Trump or Cruz or anyone else, who loses the general election by at least five points, would put the GOP’s Senate majority at great risk,” Faucheax told the Examiner. “A substantial loss by the Republican presidential nominee would put a lot of downward pressure on GOP Senate candidates in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Illinois, Ohio, Florida and Nevada.”
Well aware of this historical trend, GOP leaders are worried. General election polls show Trump trailing likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by as many as 13 points.
“I think the candidates are going to take a wait-and-see approach,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connoll told the Examiner. “Depending on the numbers, some may have to drop him like a hot rock. Some may have to embrace him.”
