CONCORD, N.H. – For anybody who followed then-Sen. Barack Obama around the early primary states eight years ago, it’s striking to notice how many parallels there are between how he ran in 2007, and how Sen. Marco Rubio is running his presidential campaign now.
On the surface, many of the similarities are obvious. Like Obama during the 2008 campaign, Rubio is young. Like Obama, Rubio is seeking the presidency as a freshman senator. Like Obama, Rubio is running against a politician representing a political dynasty in the primary and facing the prospect of an older and more experienced general election rival.
But even beyond these similarities, it’s interesting to see how much Rubio is borrowing from Obama’s successful political script.
Throughout 2007 and 2008, Obama spoke of the need to “turn the page” on the Bush years and “write a new chapter” in American history. He implored the audience to join him so they could become a part of this moment.
Rubio has adopted a similar rhetorical approach, only he’s presenting himself as an antidote to the Obama era. During a Wednesday appearance in Nashua, N.H., Rubio declared, “The time has come for us to turn the page as a nation, and as a party, and usher in a new era of progress on all of these issues that we face. When the story of the time is written, it will say that we were the authors of the greatest era of our history.”
As a candidate, Obama deflected criticisms of his lack of experience as a cynical attempt of those in power to protect the status quo. “We need to have him in Washington longer,” Obama said in his stump speech ahead of the Iowa caucuses, parodying the establishment. “We need to stew him, and season him a little bit, and boil all of the hope out of him.” He said, “the real gamble is to keep on doing the same things, with the same folks, over and over again, and expect something different.”
Similarly, in Nashua, Rubio reminded the audience that he was initially opposed by the GOP establishment in his 2010 U.S. Senate race and noted that since running for president, “many of the exact same people in the establishment came forward. ‘Oh, you need to wait your turn. Wait in line.’ Wait for what? What are we waiting for? To elect more of the same people with the same ideas so we can live in the same stagnation?”
Obama’s rhetoric worked because the same message that he ran against Hillary Clinton in the primary carried over against John McCain in the general election. Rubio, too, is arguing that the party and the country need a fresh face rather than somebody who has been in politics for a long time.
During the 2008 campaign, Obama always tried to frame his message as positive and optimistic, and to resist hitting harder at Clinton. As he gained in polls, he mocked pundits who had urged him to go more negative, summarizing their argument as, “‘He’s gotta kneecap her, he’s gotta do a Tonya Harding on the front-runner.'”
Rubio has had a similarly deft touch when fending off attacks from his rivals. He managed to push back against Jeb Bush’s attack on his absence record in the Senate while saying that he wasn’t out to cut down the other candidates. Talking to reporters on Wednesday, he was reluctant to respond to taunts from Donald Trump when prodded.
“When Donald comes across a poll he doesn’t like he gets weird and he does these sorts of strange things, and that’s fine,” Rubio said when reporters prodded him to respond to Trump following an event at Saint Anselm College. “That’s the campaign he wants to run and he’s entitled to it.” (Though on Thursday, he did hit back at Trump.)
Back in 2008, Obama spoke about people being able to “disagree without being disagreeable.” Rubio also is seeking to communicate an openness to work with people who he doesn’t fully agree with.
Following a talk at Saint Anselm College on Wednesday, a young female complained that she felt that the Republican Party shut out people who didn’t agree on social issues. Rubio responded by saying that the GOP was more of a big tent than the Democratic Party, noting that there was no place for pro-life or culturally conservative Democrats.
“I feel strongly about the issues I believe in, but I want to work with people on things that they agree with me on,” he told her. “Even though I believe strongly in the things I believe in and you and I agree on economic policy, we should be able to work together. We may have a disagreement on another policy area. I don’t know anybody in the world I agree with 100 percent.”
The success of Rubio’s strategy will hinge on whether the things that worked for Obama are broadly appealing or just specific to a time and place in history. Were Republicans who highlighted Obama’s lack of experience in 2008 merely complaining for opportunistic reasons because they didn’t like his agenda? Or do Republican voters, generally speaking, place more of an emphasis on experience? Is the lesson they’re taking from the Obama era that it’s dangerous to elect somebody without much experience, or do they see ideology as more of the problem?
Speaking to folks here, there’s evidence to support both theories.
“I like what he stands for, his energy, and I think he’s what we really need to kind of change what has happened over the past eight years,” said Nicholas Stefaniak from Lee after a Rubio townhall event in Nashua.
He explained, “I’ve gotten a chance to look into Marco’s background, I’ve read his book and he talks about the American dream and I think as a young Republican under 40, his upbringing and his background is something that really resonates with me.”
Susan Fineman of Nashua, following the same townhall, said, “I am so impressed. He was right on every single question. He didn’t skip a beat, he spoke on a number of national issues, he answered questions clearly and thoughtfully and you can tell he has plan.”
She continued, “I’m very impressed by his youth, his exuberance, his vision for America, his perseverance. I’m impressed by his having a new vision for this country to say that we will be able to prosper again.”
On the other hand, Julia King of Bartlett, an independent voter who I caught up with following a Thursday Jeb Bush event in North Conway, was scarred by the Obama years to the detriment of her opinion of Rubio.
“I voted for Obama, and I’m very disappointed,” King said. “He promised hope and change. I feel hopeless, and the change has been downward.” As it relates to Rubio, she said, “I was interested in him until I realized basically in terms of his track record, it’s the same as Obama’s. He had one season in the Congress and he really hasn’t done anything. He misses votes. And we’ve been down that road before.”
Rubio still hasn’t generated anywhere near the crowds or enthusiasm that Obama did by this point in 2007. He doesn’t have the benefit of the doting media coverage Obama benefited from. And he’s also facing a much more crowded field than Obama.
In 2008, after Iowa, Obama’s only real challenger was Clinton, so his “change” message had staying power. But for Rubio, the “change” and anti-establishment theme works a lot better in a world in which Bush is the front-runner than in a reality where he’s up against the likes of Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Sen. Ted Cruz.
Time will tell whether Republicans eager to turn the page on the Obama era are ready for Rubio to write that next chapter.
