Democrats can hardly believe their luck.
Donald Trump, the undisputed national front-runner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, is poised to erase all of the disadvantages the Democratic Party should face in its bid to win a rare third consecutive White House race. Political parties have managed to hold the presidency for more than two terms only twice in the last century, and Americans are only moderately satisfied with President Obama and Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee.
But Trump’s approval ratings with key voting blocs are so bad, and he has so dominated media coverage of the 2016 primaries, that Democratic strategists believe there is no way he could rehabilitate himself for the general election. Even if the New York real estate mogul and reality television star isn’t the nominee, they are convinced the GOP won’t be able to escape the damage he’s done, regardless of who they put up against Clinton.
“The Donald Trump that I knew from New York has disappeared. The Donald Trump that has broad appeal to folks has disappeared,” said Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic pollster in New York who is advising Priorities USA, a pro-Clinton super political action committee. “I have no idea who the real one is. But the current version is distasteful to a broad cross-section of people.”
Trump is an unpredictable character in an unusual political environment.
Some political observers have wondered whether he might have hidden electoral strength. Maybe his ideologically untethered worldview — Democratic, populist or Republican, depending on the issue — would allow him to assemble an unorthodox voting coalition that would overwhelm Clinton in swing battlegrounds and some blue states. Trump’s committed supporters certainly believe this, even positing that Democrats are secretly freaking out about the prospects of facing the billionaire next November.
Both privately and publicly, Democrats offer the same response to that theory: Hardly. Democratic operatives who have reviewed extensive amounts of polling data as they prepare for 2016 say there is simply no evidence to support the notion that Trump would be a strong general election candidate. If anything, they’re confident that Trump winning the nomination clears Clinton’s path to the White House. His support among Hispanics and other crucial voting pools is simply too low to win.
Democratic strategists say that Trump’s bombastic style, including characterization of illegal Mexican immigrants as “rapists,” and controversial policy proposals, such as one to round up and deport 11-12 million illegal immigrants and another to ban all foreign Muslims from entering the U.S., would have repercussions for Republicans beyond the top of the ticket. Democrats are angling to win back the Senate majority they lost just last year, and they view Trump as a lucky break.
“Vulnerable Republican senators and candidates who already faced uphill battles defending their own out of touch records will have an even harder time next year because of Donald Trump’s non-stop toxic and offensive rhetoric and positions,” said Sadie Weiner, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Republican strategists and elected officials don’t disagree. In an interview with the Washington Examiner, Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., both Republicans, said Trump could sink GOP candidates down ticket. In the crucial swing state of Ohio, Republican Sen. Rob Portman is developing a strategy to help him compensate for Trump headwinds he could face when he runs for re-election next year, according to a story from Washington Post reporters Robert Costa and Philip Rucker.
The Democrats’ confidence is backed up by the data.
In the latest Fox News poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, Clinton was losing to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, 45 percent to 43 percent, and was tied with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, at 45 percent each. But she beat Trump like a drum, 49 percent to 38 percent, and came close to the important 50 percent mark. The poll surveyed 1,013 registered voters, and had an error margin of 3 percentage points.
In the Fox poll, Clinton beat Trump among women by 26 points and only trailed him by 5 points among men. She beat him among voters with college degrees and without; she demolished him with black voters and was only 5 points behind in the battle for whites. Clinton trailed Trump by a single point among independents. But she picked up 15 percent of Republicans, holding Trump to just 72 percent among voters in his own party.
Trump is a particular problem for Republicans among Hispanics, Democratic (and GOP) operatives say. This cohort votes in greater numbers every four years, and could play an influential role in determining the outcome in multiple battleground states, particularly in Colorado, Florida and Nevada. It’s hard to see the Republicans winning the White House if they don’t come out on top in Colorado and Florida, at least.
Consider these numbers from a survey of Hispanic voters conducted in November by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion for Telemundo and MSNBC. The sample included 437 Hispanics and 264 registered Hispanic voters, with error margins of 4.7 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
- 67 percent of Hispanics view Trump negatively; just 17 percent view Trump positively.
- In a race between Clinton and Trump, President Obama’s former secretary of state was the choice of 69 percent of Hispanics. Only 27 percent chose Trump, the same too-low number that voted for Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, prompting Trump to soon after that election to criticize Romney for supporting harsh immigration policies that pushed Hispanic voters away.
- 65 percent of Hispanics believe Trump is hurting the Republican brand; an equal percentage said they “consider Trump to be insulting and offensive.”
- 68 percent of Hispanics agreed with the statement: “He is not the kind of leader the country needs right now.”
This poll’s findings, regarding Hispanic voters’ opinions of Trump, were consistent with several polls taken since he entered the race six months ago.
It’s typical for presidential candidates to run hard to the left or right in their primary campaigns, and then strike a more reasonable, centrist approach in the general election. Trump might also do that if he wins the GOP nomination. But Democratic strategists say the celebrity businessman is too well known, and has gone too far with his rhetoric and policies, to successfully recalibrate his image the way past nominees have.
“I don’t think winning a presidential election is ever easy — no matter who you’re running against,” said Justin Barasky, communications director for Priorities USA, the pro-Clinton super PAC. “But Donald Trump comes with a lot of baggage. There is a segment of his supporters who think he would do very well with minority voters; that’s absurd.”
