The video North Korea released showing its successful launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine was likely faked, according to analysts at a U.S.-based academic institute.
The video released by North Korea allegedly shows a launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine in late December, just two weeks before the country claimed that it successfully tested a hydrogen bomb.
John Schilling, an aerospace engineer, compared the video released by the North Koreans, which appeared to have been spliced together, and commercial satellite imagery from the SInpo South Shipyard to look for inconsistencies that may suggest the North Korea video is faked.
Schilling writes that both the video and outside satellite images suggest that the test was conducted by an underwater barge, not a submarine. The post on 38 North, a site run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, says that the submarine allegedly used in the successful test was seen in dock just two days after where it was undergoing what seemed like routine maintenance.
The launch from the barge was “at least partially successful,” Schilling writes, and will likely lead to a successful launch from a submarine sometime in the future.
“They know how to build missiles that work, they know how to build submarines that work, and Kim Jong-un seems particularly enthusiastic about both. We anticipate they will keep trying,” according to the post.
It’s not clear what, if anything, went wrong during December’s test, but the editing of the video appears to be “concealing a partial failure,” the post says. As a result, it estimates that North Korea will not have the capability to launch a ballistic missile from a submarine until 2020.
The Obama administration has also suggested that it is skeptical of North Korea’s claims about its successful hydrogen bomb test this month.
White House press secretary Josh Earnest said last week that initial U.S. intelligence reports are “not consistent with North Korean claims of a successful hydrogen bomb test.”
Prior to the State of the Union on Tuesday night, the House passed a bill that would increase sanctions on North Korea as a result of these recent tests.
“The Kim regime’s continued efforts to develop a nuclear arsenal is a direct threat to the United States. Now is not the time for more of the administration’s ‘strategic patience.’ It’s time for action,” said Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., and sponsor of the legislation.
