While Democrats and Republicans skirmish over the health care bill, the battle for November will most likely hinge on the economy and a fight for independent voters.
Republicans, looking for a comeback after electoral setbacks in 2006 and 2008, have a slight advantage among independents, according to two recent polls.
A USA Today/Gallup poll found Republicans in Congress faring better among independent voters, with 27 percent calling their efforts on health care reform good, to 29 percent who judged it as poor.
That may not sound so great, but Democrats in Congress got a 22 percent favorable rating on health care from independents, to 37 percent who judged their efforts as poor.
“I don’t think anybody in the country is in love with the Congress today, but the question is, Will they vote for a change?” said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. “Will they restore some balance after giving one side a very, very heavy majority in the last two elections?”
After helping elect President Obama in 2008, independents have shown a marked exodus of from his column in polls in the past year — primarily over his handling of the economy.
But Obama’s work on health care reform split independents in a USA Today/Gallup poll, suggesting a slight warming of independent voters back toward the president after a year of losing faith.
Obama isn’t on the ballot this time, though he plans to campaign for Democrats throughout the fall — touting his new health care reform measure as a defining legislative achievement.
“I assume the president will talk about health care for a long time,” said White House press secretary Robert Gibbs. “We’ll be on the road extensively in the fall as it relates to health care reform.”
That may be problematic, however, with another poll showing health care a distant second to the economy among the top concerns of voters.
A new CNN/Opinion Research survey found 43 percent of registered voters said the economy is their biggest concern in this year’s election. Health care reform was the second-rated issue, with 23 percent.
The findings track other polls throughout the year that have shown Americans fretting over the lack of significant improvement in the economy, while Washington has remained largely focused on health care.
More worrisome for Obama, the CNN poll found 48 percent of voters said they will vote for a Republican in November, to 45 percent who said they will choose a Democrat.
The poll also found independent voters favoring Republicans, with 43 percent saying they will stick with the GOP this year, to 32 percent who plan to vote for a Democrat.
Gallup earlier this year found a slight increase in the number of Americans identifying as independents — about 37 percent, compared with 35 percent who said so in 2008. That makes independents a critical bloc in the fall elections to determine which party controls Congress.
As part of his pitch to the political middle and fiscally minded independents, Obama is highlighting the deficit-cutting aspects of health care reform.
