The volume of public opinion data about politics and the upcoming Midterm elections was nudged off-balance by a recent Gallup poll finding that the Republican party is the most popular it’s been in eight years.
Almost every indicator in sight (the economy does look pretty good, you know) implies that the GOP is in dire straits. The president’s approval rating, while not at the disastrously low level it was in the summer and fall of last year, has consistently been more than 10 percentage points underwater. The “generic congressional ballot,” such as it’s predictive of anything, has favored Democrats by 5 to 10 percentage points throughout 2018. Democrats have pushed Republican incumbents in several special elections they should’ve won easily—which isn’t as meaningful on its own as it is in the context of statistics reflecting the public’s anti-Republican sentiment.
And yet: Gallup’s September survey of American adults showed the party with a 45 percent approval rating, the highest such finding since the tea party swept into Congress in January 2011. It seems like cognitive dissonance to simultaneously believe that Republicans are headed for a rout in November but actually are relatively popular. But there are some explanations—starting with an obvious one Gallup highlighted while analyzing its data.
“The overall increase in the favorable image of the Republican party is a result of a jump in the positive views of Republicans, including independents who lean toward the party,” Gallup wrote. “The percentage of Republicans and leaners with favorable views of their party grew from 67 percent last September to 85 percent now.” That corresponds with Trump’s steady favorability among Republicans—a number that lagged around 80 percent late last year but has touched 90 percent multiple times this spring and summer, per Gallup.
It’s worth bearing in mind that Republicans’ perceptions of the president and their party have increased during a period in which the majority celebrated a signature domestic policy achievement (tax reform) instead of a signature legislative disaster (Obamacare repeal). Trump’s foreign policy adventurism in Helsinki and Singapore has been defined more by his bluster than concrete results—and it’s simply a feature of Trump loyalty that his supporters trust his bluster. The Russia investigation—the defining news story of Trump’s second year in office—is mostly white noise to Republicans. There are polling proxies for this: Just 18 percent of Republicans (and 33 percent of independents!) told CNN in August that the investigation was important to their vote in November, and there is a negative correlation between the president’s approval rating and how much attention voters pay to Mueller’s probe.
Trump is fond of touting the cohesiveness and strength of the GOP, sometimes indubitably overselling it (“RED WAVE!”). He’s evidently correct, however, that the party unit is solid: Like Trump or not, he assertively has assumed ownership of the Republican brand. Most Washington Republicans and Republican voters have stayed in line, and dissent is punishable by the fate that befell Jeff Flake.
But this is an internal view of the Republican party. It doesn’t help a movement’s electoral prospects if its adherents are fervent, but its size isn’t viable. Gallup’s September poll of party popularity can’t be viewed as a stand-in for an election poll—but its weighted sample of respondents included a humble amount of self-identified Republicans (different than Republican “leaners”). The breakdown was 27 percent Republican (down from more than 29 percent last September), 28 percent Democrat (down from 30), and a staggering 45 percent independent (up from 41).
It’s good news for Republicans that it seems independents who lean their way have a developed a higher regard for the GOP—as Gallup notes, it could be a promising sign for November, “particularly if a more positive image boosts Republican turnout.” Independents, though, are volatile and reflect soft support—if anything, it’s interesting that Gallup included such a close sample of Republicans and Democrats, and the popularity of each party with the public is nearly identical (45 percent to 44 percent). This suggests the country is both politically divided and politically confused.
The bottom line is that Republicans are still in trouble nationally in the Midterms. Trump’s support in the upper Midwest and Rust Belt, which carried him to victory in 2016, has declined significantly, according to Morning Consult’s map. Unsurprisingly, the Cook Political Report projects Democrats to flip four Republican-held House seats in Pennsylvania and three between Minnesota and Iowa (five other GOP-controlled districts in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are listed as toss-ups). And while David Byler’s SwingSeat model gives Republicans a two out of three chance of holding the Senate, it predicts that Democrats will hang on to vulnerable seats in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and West Virginia: all states Trump won in 2016 by at least 19 points.
The Republican mood favors Republicans. The national mood—now that’s a different story.
