When New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was demoted to CNBC’s undercard debate, it looked like a death blow to his faltering 2016 presidential campaign. Now it appears he has not only graduated from the kiddie table, but penetrated New Hampshire’s top tier.
A December survey by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Christie in the double digits and in the top four candidates among Republicans in New Hampshire. More importantly, from the perspective of his room to grow, there was a dramatic turnaround in his favorability ratings. Once among the least popular contenders with the GOP electorate, the poll showed him with a 39-point net favorable rating.
The revival of Christie’s campaign could also resuscitate the dormant “establishment primary” within the larger Republican contest. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has appeared to have the establishment mantle nailed down since he entered the race with a $100 million fundraising bang.
All of the competition has been among the conservatives, although Donald Trump has posted strong numbers among moderate to liberal Republicans in some polls.
Bush’s fundraising bang has become more of a whimper, as both his formal campaign and his mighty super political action committee have spent heavily only to produce lackluster poll numbers. His favorability is at 38 percent, 45 percent unfavorable. “I guess shock and awe didn’t,” quipped a Republican strategist who supports a rival campaign. Many Bush donors have already maxed out, and new ones haven’t been enticed by his single-digit support.
Maybe the establishment would like a do-over? Christie appears to realize he’s running in the establishment primary. “I think you’ve got a group of folks like Jeb Bush and John Kasich and Marco Rubio who are the people that I’m really competing against in New Hampshire,” he told Laura Ingraham in an interview. “I don’t feel at the moment directly in competition with Donald Trump on these things.”
Bush and Kasich are certainly vying for the support of Republicans who are horrified at the prospect of a Trump or Ben Carson nomination. So is Rubio, whose significant conservative support might make him a surprising addition to a list of establishment candidates. Rubio himself has played up the party’s initial opposition to his 2010 Florida Senate campaign and attacks from the Bush campaign to burnish his own outsider credentials.
But it’s not the first time Rubio has found himself in the company of Bush, Christie and Kasich rather than Trump, Carson or Ted Cruz. Cruz himself told a Washington Examiner teleforum that the Republican primary is split into “a moderate establishment lane and there’s been a conservative lane.” He put Rubio in the “moderate lane.”
Given the anti-establishment tilt of the Republican presidential race so far, why does the establishment primary matter? Because if Trump is the last candidate standing on the right, there will be a strong demand for a dump-Trump candidate, and much of that demand will come from the establishment, potentially making that wing of the party relevant again.
That’s where a tough-talking Christie can hope to emulate a previous establishment nominee, John McCain. McCain appeared to fall out of contention the year before the 2008 primaries (though it should be noted his poll numbers were typically higher than Christie’s even then) and his campaign nearly went broke. He was able to ride his popularity with New Hampshire independents down the comeback trail and turn his campaign around. The McCain model has also been referenced in connection with Bush.
But a candidate who weaves between the conservative and establishment lanes, like Rubio, might have an easier time. The question becomes whether the establishment seal of approval is actually helpful to a candidate trying to navigate the Republican primaries or whether it is the equivalent of a target on one’s back.
