Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., is used to sailing with the prevailing political breeze, but this year she is heading into a storm.
“Certainly I think this year is different than previous years for Boxer,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll in California.
Last month, the Field Poll found Boxer virtually tied with each of three potential GOP opponents and she actually lagged behind one, former Rep. Tom Campbell, by a point.
The day the poll was released, Boxer assured reporters she could handle the challenge, telling them, “All my races have been hard.”
But this race could be different, say analysts.
“I don’t believe there has ever been a time when she was trailing in any measure,” DiCamillo said. “I would label this seat this year as very competitive and a tossup seat.”
Boxer’s threatened re-election bid is tied to her image among voters, which has worsened in recent months. The Field Poll in January found registered voters viewed her favorably, 48 percent to 39 percent. But those numbers nearly reversed themselves by March, with Boxer’s unfavorable rating rising to 51 percent and her favorability score dropping to 38 percent.
DiCamillo says Boxer was damaged in part by the passage by Democrats of the president’s massive health care program. Other political analysts say Boxer has sagging poll numbers because of the anti-Washington sentiment across the country. California is suffering from 12.8 percent unemployment and a massive state budget deficit.
John Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said Boxer has never been a strong candidate and won her last three races because of favorable outside political circumstances, including backlash against the impeachment of President Clinton in 1998 and the state’s rejection of President Bush in 2004.
“She’s had three lucky cycles,” Pitney said. “Now it’s a much different environment for her and the polls are reflecting that.”
Complicating matters for Boxer, energy companies and an anti-tax group are pushing a November ballot measure that would delay California’s plan to impose a statewide cap and trade system aimed at curbing carbon emissions, arguing that it would kill jobs and raise utility rates. Boxer, who is chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, moved an unpopular nationwide cap-and-trade bill through her panel this year.
“If they do get it on the ballot you’ve got to expect the proponents will tie her to it,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Duffy and other political analysts believe Boxer’s prospects for a fourth term will depend mostly on who wins the June 8 Republican primary. Campbell, who favors maintaing access to elective abortions for women, polls the highest. But Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive who is a few points behind Campbell, is likely more capable of raising enough money to mount a challenge against Boxer. A third contender, state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, is lagging in the polls.
Duffy pointed out that either Fiorina or Campbell would pose a new challenge to Boxer because “she has never run against a woman and she has never run against a pro-choice Republican, which changes the equation.”
