Michael Avenatti at the VMAs Is a Thing

In the infomercial version of the Michael Avenatti story, this is the part where we get the record-scratch, freeze-frame, and voice-over with Avenatti saying, “You’re probably wondering how I got here.” But the real-world journey of Avenatti—lawyer to porn star who says she banged it out with the president (when they weren’t watching Shark Week together) who then becomes a media celebrity and then decides to run against said president—is too crazy.

Avenatti may or may not actually make it onto a ballot in 2020. He has been to Iowa and New Hampshire. He says he’s “exploring a run for the presidency.” And showing up to the VMAs is a proven path to the White House. But before you look at him and dismiss him as a clown, ask yourself two questions: (1) At this point in 2014, what odds would you have put on Donald Trump becoming president in 27 months? (2) Who else do the Democrats have, really?

This second question is the serious one. Speaking generally, Democrats will have three options for the next presidential election. They can run a conventional politician—anyone from Bernie Sanders to Tim Kaine to Kamala Harris. Or they could run an unconventional celebrity. The dream candidate in this category is Oprah, but it could be anyone from Howard Schultz to Mark Cuban. The third possible avenue is that they could nominate another Trump: Some fringe pugilist so manifestly unfit for office that he sounds like a joke—until suddenly he’s at 17 percent in a crowded field and the joke isn’t so funny anymore. Which is where Avenatti might fit.

The path the Democrats ultimately choose will be dependent on lots of factors. But the first will be the outcome of the midterm elections 11 weeks from today. As of right now, the most likely outcomes are that the Democrats will take the House while Republicans will keep a narrow edge in the Senate. In that case, you could see the advantage going to a conventional political candidate—maybe someone whose views are extreme, but who at least has a history in electoral politics.

But what if it doesn’t work out that way? There’s a 1-in-4 chance that Republicans could keep the House, and if that happens then they’re likely to wind up with somewhere in the neighborhood of 55 seats in the Senate. At that point, you’ll start to hear rumblings like this one:

It would not surprise me at all if the Democratic response to a midterm loss would be to turn to someone completely outside the institutions of politics simply because he promises to live down to Trumpian standards.

Which brings us to the larger question: What, if anything, will be Donald Trump’s political legacy? His election was a fluke, a perfect storm, an inside straight—pick your metaphor. If you run the 2016 election 10 more times, he probably loses eight of them. But even random events can have very real downstream influences on the world. So does Trump’s election mean that the field has been cleared for nontraditional candidates? Is celebrity and the ability to dominate media now more important than institutional support, candidate skill, and money? Is the bar for expertise now permanently lowered so that a candidate need not demonstrate even basic competencies? Is the standard for personal behavior now so atomized that essentially no past actions or statements are disqualifying?

If Michael Avenatti—or someone like him—runs, then we’re going to find out the answer to those questions. And I suspect we will not like them.