Democratic candidates lead their GOP rivals in the 2016 U.S. Senate races in Ohio and Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, previously rumored to have contemplated a run for higher office, trails former Gov. Ted Strickland by six percentage points.
Republicans had viewed Portman’s seat as “relatively safe,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, in a statement. Despite President Obama’s underwater approval rating, and a 2-to-1 job approval rating for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Portman appears to have underperformed at home early.
“Kasich remains a political icon, while Obama might have difficulty winning in Ohio these days, factors which could boost Sen. Rob Portman’s re-election chances,” Brown said.
In Florida, Rep. Alan Grayson, a liberal populist, holds a 6-percentage point lead in hypothetical matchups against two Republican opponents vying to replace Sen. Marco Rubio, who launched a presidential campaign earlier this year. Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, meanwhile, has a 12-percentage point edge over Republican Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and an 8-percentage point lead against Rep. Ron DeSantis.
Pennsylvania provides the lone bit of good news for Republican candidates in Quinnipiac’s poll. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Penn., has a “larger than expected lead over Joe Sestak,” the Democrat he defeated six years ago.
“With healthy job approval and favorability ratings and opponents who have very weak or even negligible recognition, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey seems to be on cruise control — for now,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, in a statement.
All three races may come down to the wire in 2016, and the polling may serve as a bellwether of the GOP’s standing in each state for the presidential election, too. While Obama’s sinking approval ratings renders him all but useless to the Democratic candidates, his poor performance in the polls does not seem to have damaged the Democrats’ leads.
