President Obama has a tough selling job this week when he meets with leaders of the Arab Gulf countries in an effort to reassure them that a nuclear deal with Iran won’t hurt their security.
Though Israel’s objections to any deal get much more attention in the U.S. media, Arab Gulf countries are worried that an agreement would empower an assertive Iran to dominate them. And their concerns have been bolstered rather than eased by the potential agreement that appears to be taking shape since the April 2 announcement of a framework in Lausanne, Switzerland, that has been criticized as too weak to ensure Iran would not be able to obtain a nuclear weapon.
“I’m not sure the president could provide them with the assurance that they’re going to be more secure with the nuclear deal as it stands,” Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain, R-Ariz., told the Washington Examiner.
Administration officials reportedly are looking at buying off the skepticism with new defense arrangements and supplies of advanced weapons when Obama meets with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council on Wednesday and Thursday.
But Obama’s strategy of focusing solely on Iran’s nuclear ambitions while ignoring other provocations already has hurt U.S. relations with the Saudi-led bloc, which sees itself being encircled by Iran and its proxies and worries that international sanctions will be lifted without addressing their concerns. Not only have the countries become more assertive in their own defense with the Saudi intervention against Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, but they also are looking elsewhere for support.
French President Francois Hollande attended a meeting of Gulf leaders in Riyadh last week, the first time a Western leader has attended a summit of the group since it was formed in 1981. Though Secretary of State John Kerry also was in Riyadh last week, his visit was limited to bilateral talks with Saudi leaders.
Gulf Cooperation Council “states feel that the U.S. approach needs to be revamped; there is a collective feeling that there has been a downgrading of their value, and appreciation of the value of Iran. The GCC states need to be reassured there is no selling out, or ‘grand bargain’ over the final Iran nuclear deal,” Abdullah Al Shayji, a political science professor at Kuwait University, wrote in the Dubai-based Gulf News daily on May 3.
“Tehran should not be given concessions. It does not deserve to be anointed the ‘policeman of the Gulf.’ The final nuclear deal should not come at the expense of the GCC, and should not give Iran the upper hand to undermine and bully the Gulf states, allowing it to further foment sectarianism and meddle in Arab and GCC affairs.”
Administration officials are scrambling to find ways to dispel Arab concerns that Washington is seeking a rapprochement with Iran at their expense, according to reports in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. Officials have discussed new security arrangements that fall just short of formal alliances but outline the help Washington would give if Iran attacked them. Discussions also are expected to center on increased sales of advanced weaponry such as missile-defense systems and new fighter jets, including, perhaps, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
But those ideas come with the risk of deepening U.S. involvement in a volatile region from which Obama has hoped throughout his presidency to disengage. Sales of new weaponry threaten to upset the U.S. commitment to maintain Israel’s military edge in the region, and Congress would be likely to reject them.
“What I worry about is that we’re going to change the balance of power in the Mideast,” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a potential GOP presidential candidate, told the Examiner.
“I’m very suspicious of this meeting, and I would tell our Arab allies that Congress will have a say about any weapons transfers.”
The biggest obstacle for Obama may be the Iran agreement itself. Unless negotiations over the next six weeks take an unexpected turn, it seems likely that Obama will sign a deal returning to Iran more than $100 billion in frozen assets and providing relief from international sanctions that have impeded its access to global oil and financial markets. In exchange, Iran would mothball much of its nuclear program for 10 years under conditions that even neutral experts say may not prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.
The framework also does not address a key concern of Gulf countries: Iran’s growing involvement in the Arab world. Iran has mobilized mostly Shiite Arabs through its proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon to gain significant influence there and in other key Arab countries such as Iraq and Syria, and has threatened to use the same tactic against Saudi Arabia. Gulf leaders say Iran already is playing that game in Bahrain, a Gulf council member that has a Shiite majority led by a Sunni regime and is claimed by Tehran as its own territory.
Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, along with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, announced Sunday they would not attend the summit, sending their crown princes in their stead.
In a May 5 speech to the Gulf leaders’ meeting, King Salman said any final agreement with Iran should include unambiguous security guarantees for other nations as well as ensuring Iran will not obtain nuclear weapons.
“Seeking nuclear weapons represents a very serious threat,” the king said, calling on international negotiators “to set stricter rules that guarantee the region’s security and prevent it from plunging into an arms race.”
In the final communique following their meeting, Gulf council leaders said they hoped the Iran framework would lead to an agreement that meets “all the international standards, including standards relating to the security and safety of nuclear facilities and full supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency in addition to address[ing] all concerns and environmental implications.”
The communique also stated the leaders’ desire that an agreement “could contribute to resolving the outstanding issues with Iran,” including territorial disputes and Iran’s interference in the internal affairs of member states.
Saudi Ambassador to Bahrain Abdullah Al-Asheikh was blunt in an interview last month quoted in the Saudi English-language daily Arab News, saying Gulf leaders will tell Obama they will not be silent if they perceive a deal with Iran as a threat.
“In this case, we will do our best to stop it,” he said.
