Although the Ohiolike demographics of Pennsylvania make it a “should-win” state for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama could pose a serious challenge if he routs her in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs and wins substantial victories in eastern cities like Allentown and Bethlehem.
With four weeks left until the April 22 primary, Obama has ample time to cut into Clinton’s formidable lead in the Keystone State, political analysts say, though most agree it will be tough for him to come out on top unless she makes a major stumble.
“It’s too early to foreclose on him tightening the race, or possibly winning it, but she is in a commanding position at this point, and it is her race to lose,” Pennsylvania pollster Michael Young said. New poll numbers give her a 16-point lead.
Both candidates spent time in Pennsylvania last week, but the total number of visits by Clinton and her husband far exceed those made by Obama.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe would not discuss the campaign’s strategy in Pennsylvania.
“We will be campaigning in Pennsylvania, but our campaign will not be defined by that state,” Plouffe said.
Certain parts of the state may be out of reach for Obama.
Western Pennsylvania, political analysts say, is “Clinton Country” — it borders the parts of Ohio that she dominated in the March 4 primary.
Like neighboring counties in Ohio, western Pennsylvania isplagued by poor economic conditions, and its shrinking population is primarily made up of lower-income whites.
But the economy and population grow more diverse heading east toward Philadelphia, where blacks are expected to comprise more than half of all primary voters.
While Obama is expected to win Philadelphia, he could also pick up support in cities east of the Susquehanna River that include Allentown and Bethlehem, former industrial towns that have grown more economically diverse and more cosmopolitan — and that are influenced by the Philadelphia media market.
“The west looks better for Clinton and the east looks more like a dogfight,” Young said.
If Obama stands a chance at winning, Young said, he must win big in southeastern Pennsylvania, not only in Philadelphia but also in the large suburban counties that surround it: Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware.
Franklin and Marshall College poll director Terry Madonna said Obama could win those suburbs because they are populated by thekind of upscale, well-educated voters who typically vote for him.
“On the other hand these suburbs also have a lot of women who tend to favor Clinton,” Madonna said. “It will be a big battle.”
