The last bastion of Democratic power in Richmond and the only barrier to a drastic ideological shift to the right will be on the line in a handful of Virginia Senate races in Tuesday’s election. If Republicans gain just three seats they will flip the Senate and effectively control the statehouse, giving Gov. Bob McDonnell carte blanche to enact the conservative agenda he ran on in 2009 and ensuring Democrats don’t have a seat at the negotiating table through 2013.
“There are other things that I’d like to get done,” McDonnell, whose Opportunity Virginia PAC has contributed $3.5 million to legislative races, told The Washington Examiner. “A lot of those things I’ll have more success with if we have fiscally conservative Republicans in both houses.”
| Policy areas to watch if Republicans win the Virginia Senate |
| -The 2012-14 biennial budget. Gov. Bob McDonnell asked agencies to prepare cuts of 2, 4 and 6 percent. Democrats will fight further cuts to K-12 education. |
| -Abortion. The legislature already enacted tougher rules for abortion clinics and is likely to take up additional restrictions. |
| -Guns. Weapons could be allowed on university campuses and concealed weapons could be allowed on government property. |
| -Immigration. Democrats killed proposals to deny illegal immigrants public assistance and penalize businesses that hired them. |
| -School vouchers. McDonnell favors more charter schools, lab schools and tax credits for businesses that provide scholarships for students to attend private and parochial schools. |
| -Public employees. McDonnell asked state workers to pay 5 percent of their retirement costs last year and wants to offer them a 401(k)-style retirement plan. |
With a 22-18 majority, Senate Democrats have regularly killed bills sent over by the Republican-run House of Delegates, including proposals that opened the door to a school voucher program and supplemented the current public pension system with an option for a 401(k)-style retirement plan for state workers. Those would certainly be on the table in a Republican Senate, as would tougher restrictions on abortions and drug screening for welfare recipients.
“The Democratic Senate has provided a balance to state government that’s really healthy,” said Sen. Mary Whipple, D-Arlington. “The Democrats can’t keep everything from happening, but we can have an influence on issues that do go through.”
Whipple also warned of Draconian cuts to education that the Senate prevented in the last round of budget negotiations.
“That’s because they’re running for re-election and want to scare people,” Republican House Speaker Bill Howell said. “I don’t think that’s necessarily going to be true.”
While the General Assembly’s upper chamber has traditionally trended toward more moderate policies, even when in the hands of the GOP from 1999 to 2007, the slate of Republicans on the ballot are considerably more conservative than their predecessors. Controversial bills that come out of the House — like an Arizona-style immigration law and allowing concealed weapons on college campuses — could get support in a Senate likely to include at least a few new Tea Party members.
House Republicans could have pushed those bills for political points, knowing they wouldn’t gain traction in the Senate, said Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech University. But if the Senate started supporting them, McDonnell could have a series of contentious bills land on his desk just as he’s raising his national political profile.
McDonnell noted, “I’m a social conservative and I’m a fiscal conservative,” and that likely aligns him with the right wing of his party. But, he added, he’s not afraid to veto Republican bills.
“I’m going to try to do what I think is the right thing,” he said.
