The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pumping more than $1 million into Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, where Rep. Gerald Connolly is fending off Republican challenger Keith Fimian in a district once thought to be safe Democratic turf.
The DCCC is spending money on advertising blitzes in more than 60 races across the country in the final days before the Nov. 2 election, but the investment in Connolly’s Northern Virginia district was the largest among them, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a campaign-finance watchdog group.
The DCCC is giving far less money to two other incumbent Democrats in Virginia who were once considered far more vulnerable than Connolly: Rep. Tom Perriello in the sprawling 5th District, which runs from north of Charlottesville to the North Carolina border, and Rep. Glenn Nye, whose 2nd District is centered in Norfolk. Both freshman lawmakers are facing strong Republican challengers and could lose their seats.
The 11th-hour infusion of so much cash into Connolly’s district indicates that the race is proving far more competitive than Democrats previously thought, said Mark Rozell of George Mason University.
“Months ago, [Democrats] wished that they would never have had to spend money on this race,” he said. “It must be anxious times at Democratic headquarters.”
Connolly beat Fimian in 2008 during a Democratic sweep of Virginia led by President Obama, the first Democratic presidential contender to carry the Old Dominion since 1964. But this year’s anti-incumbent fervor among voters, aimed mainly at the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, is apparently making Fimian far more competitive this time around and leaving Democrats feeling far less certain of Connolly’s chances.
Connolly’s campaign and the DCCC downplayed the significance of the late spending on an advertising campaign, saying national Democrats have long planned to support Connolly.
“The DCCC’s been planning to expose Keith Fimian’s record, and over the last two weeks, that plan has moved forward,” said Jesse Ferguson, a committee spokesman.
But Dan Palazzolo, a political science professor at the University of Richmond, said that sheer size of the cash infusion suggests Democrats are worried that Connolly is in trouble.
“Here’s the rule of thumb: Parties don’t act irrationally, and resources are not unlimited,” Palazzolo said. “When parties spend a million dollars in the last week of the campaign, they’re making an investment. They’re not doing it because he’s a nice guy.”
Meanwhile, the National Republican Campaign Committee over the past two weeks has focused its spending on challengers to Perriello and Nye as well as Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher in Southwest Virginia’s 9th District. Boucher faces Virginia’s House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith.
Given Connolly’s voting record, it’s no surprise that the DCCC has had to jump in to help him, said Fimian campaign manager Tim Edson.
Edson suggested that Fimian’s internal polling shows the race to be very close, though he didn’t give specifics.
“I think they’re seeing the same numbers we are,” he said.
