Democrats loyal to front-runner Hillary Clinton aren’t worried about Bernie Sanders’ New Hampshire surge — yet.
The independent senator from Vermont surpassed Clinton 44-37 in a recent Franklin Pierce University/ Boston Herald poll, his first lead of the 2016 Democratic presidential race. Just a few months ago, Clinton led Sanders 44 percent to 8 percent in the same poll.
But the Clinton team isn’t worried that Sanders will dip into her voting pool. “There’s a big difference between that poll in New Hampshire and everywhere else,” Democratic strategist Mark Mellman said, pointing that Sanders is at a natural advantage because New Hampshire borders Vermont and much of the state is part of the Burlington media market, adding “So even if he is doing that well, it’s because of that border advantage.”
In order to gain any serious momentum, Sanders will have to start discussing other policies that appeal to a larger Democratic audience. To date, his focus has been on social justice and economic inequality, specifically cracking down on the “billionaire class.”
Clinton still has the support of a lot of blue-collar Democrats that Sanders could conceivably appeal to on issues like trade policy. Sanders has also struggled to appeal to minority voters, who were crucial to Barack Obama defeating Clinton in 2008. Sanders recently hired an African-American activist as his national press secretary and has been trying to build credibility with the Black Lives Matter movement, after multiple negative encounters with the group at speeches and rallies.
“Hillary has a tremendous advantage with the minority community,” Mellman said. “She has a long and strong relationship with blue collar Democrats. … So I have tremendous respect for Bernie but I think he’s going to have a hard time beating Hillary Clinton with the Democratic electorate.”
So far, Sanders has largely refrained from attacking Clinton. In 2007, Obama and John Edwards were already going on the offensive against Clinton and the gap between them and the front-runner wasn’t as large. But Sanders’ strategy is a bit different. He bills himself as an independent from Vermont, above divisive Washington politicking. If Sanders wants to actually beat Clinton, Democrats say he is going to have to fight harder.
Clinton, on the other hand, has treated her primary campaign as if she is already the Democratic nominee, aiming her attacks at leading Republicans and ignoring the other Democrats in the field. In a recent email to supporters regarding the recent probe of her private email server, Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri said that the attacks on Clinton were “nonsense” and attacked GOP candidates who used private emails. There wasn’t a single mention of the Democratic field.
“I think it would be a serious mistake on the part of the Clinton campaign to start attacking other Democrats,” Brookings Institution fellow John Hudak said. “She is still the front-runner by quite a bit. A lot of Sanders supporters are comfortable with her candidacy but they just prefer him. The best response from Clinton would be to start engaging the issues that he’s engaging, those policies. She’s not in a position where personal attacks will help her, they are more likely to hurt her than help her.”
Sanders has drawn attention by filling 27,500-person arenas, but Clinton has specifically preferred smaller venues during this campaign. While she has been criticized for not making herself accessible, it’s likely she could attract larger crowds too if she chose to hold such events.
“From a PR perspective the Sanders campaign is getting a lot of bang for their buck with huge rallies in liberal cities,” Hudak said. “Both Sanders and Clinton are going [the] safe route now. But you’re going to see Sanders have to change to retail politics very soon. The first debate will give direction.”
Clinton has a vast infrastructure raising money for her campaign and organizing in multiple states, while Sanders refuses to form a super PAC and has less of a network in place. He has raised $15 million from 250,000 donors, averaging $33 donation. Many of his policies are the same as they were in the 1960’s. This reliability is what brings people to Sanders rallies but it’s also what could lose him the election.
“Sanders has tapped into a section of the party that loves to be a Democrat, but doesn’t like Hillary,” Hudak said. “He needs to start convincing Democrats across the board that he could win the general. I think there are questions about his electability.”
