Marco Rubio completed what might have been his final presidential debate with a performance that reminded Republicans what they like about him, offering a glimmer of hope the Florida senator might yet win his home state primary on Tuesday and extend his White House campaign.
Rubio, after using the previous two televised debates to undercut front-runner Donald Trump, capitalized on a relatively civil, substantive evening to highlight his policy expertise and deliver his appealing, optimistic message about America’s potential. Rubio didn’t shy away from criticizing Trump.
But gone were the attacks on his personal behavior and business dealings, replaced by substantive, incisive hits, among other topics, the New York celebrity businessman’s statements that Islam hates America and vow to be neutral in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
“I’m not interested in being politically correct,” Rubio said at one point, criticizing Trump. “I’m interested in being correct.”
Primary contests Tuesday in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio could mark a major inflection point in the contentious GOP campaign.
Sweeping victories by Trump could give him an insurmountable lead in the race for 1,237 delegates to the Cleveland convention, and allow him to effectively lock up the nomination. Rubio desperately needs to win Florida continue, the same goes for Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the Buckeye State. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has an opportunity to create separation from his rivals and set up a one-on-one battle with Trump for the GOP nod, if he can scoop up more delegates in the next round of voting.
Yet with such high stakes, the Republican debate that unfolded in Miami Thursday evening did so without the sort of anger and personal insults that have characterized most of its predecessors.
The two previous debates were some of the nastiest of the primary season. Rubio and Cruz used them to wallop front-runner Donald Trump — and the celebrity businessman hit right back. This lastest debate was a generally friendly affair that saw the candidates deliberately pass up several opportunities to trade punches.
In an unusual twist, the four candidates focused on substantive issues — trade, immigration, entitlement reform, foreign policy, even the tone and rhetoric coming out of their campaigns.
“So far I cannot believe how civil it’s been up here,” Trump said at one point.
That doesn’t mean the candidates didn’t mix it up, sans Kasich, who, as usual, didn’t draw any contrasts on policy — or anything else — with anyone. Rubio and Trump sparred on foreign policy and entittlement reform; Cruz and Trump battled on foreign policy, with the Texan reprising his attacks on the frontrunner’s long history of supporting liberal policies, causes and politicians.
“When it comes to foreign policy, do you want to continue on the same basic trajectory as the last seven years of the [President] Obama foreign policy? When it comes to these deal, Cuba and Iran, they were negotiated by [former secretary of state] Hillary Clinton and [current secretary of state] John Kerry. There’s a real difference between us. Donald supported Hillary Clinton and John Kerry,” Cruz said.
“If Ted was listening he would have heard me say something very similar,” Trump countered.
It was arguably a good night for everyone, with all four candidates accomplishing what they set out to do.
Trump, who controls his own fate, dialed back the insults and antagonism toward his competitors, delivering calm and measured answers.
Cruz and Rubio periodically exposed the reality television star’s lack of understanding of foreign and domestic policy, during discussion of Social Security’s role in the debt crisis and the conditions necessary to negotiate peace in the Middle East. But Trump stuck to his talking points and shrugged it off. It was perhaps his most presidential performance and surely satisfied his committed supporters.
Cruz’s priority was clearly to make the case as the only viable alternative to Trump, for the broadening movement of Republicans and conservatives who worry that the real estate mogul is winning the nomination and are desperate to stop him.
“There are only two of us that are capable of winning the nomination, Donald and myself,” Cruz said. “For the people at home, if you’re one of the 65-70 pecent of Republicans who recognizes that if we nominate Donald Trump, Hillary wins — that’s why the media wants him to be the nominee so much — if you recognize that, then I want to invite you, if you’ve supported other candidates, come and join us.”
The debate was perhaps the last chance for Trump’s rivals to stop him running away with the GOP nomination.
Rubio was in the toughest spot, with polls show him sinking to ignominious defeat by Trump in Tuesday’s primary in the Sunshine State.
He needed to get back to his positive message about a brighter future and the rise of a new, younger, generation of political leadership. Yet, he couldn’t afford to abandon his attacks on Trump, even though they appear to have backfired on him recently.
His campaign signaled beforehand that he’d avoid personal attacks, which the senator now says he regrets. But he planned to maintain his drumbeat of criticism on what he says is Trump’s lack of conservative substance and shady past in business. Rubio ultimately disgarded the attacks on Trump’s business background, but did make policy contrasts.
“We want to remind people why they voted for Marco in 2010, and make sure that everybody who opposes Trump understands that a vote for anybody in Florida except Marco is the same as a vote for Trump,” a Rubio adviser said prior to the debate. “We are hoping for a substantive debate about the issues.”
He’ll either score a massive upset and reassert his viability or likely end his 2016 White House bid.
For Cruz, the debate was crucial to his effort to be the anti-Trump candidate around whom voters eventually gather. He has only 99 fewer delegates than Trump’s 458, and says he has the best chance to beat the Manhattan billionaire. His big challenge is to persuade voters still with Rubio, or Kasich.
That’s difficult for Cruz, whose biggest problem in the GOP primary campaign has always been figuring out how to grow his base of support beyond his band of committed ideological conservatives. Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster who runs focus groups to gauge voters’ reactions to the GOP debates, recommends that Cruz “focus” on Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential front-runner.
“Be the candidate who is best able to take her apart, mistake by mistake, policy by policy,” Luntz said.
Kasich, facing his own must-win contest on Tuesday in Ohio, neededto hope his “adult in the room” act continues to propel his campaign.
Although Kasich has had some momentum of late, he’s actually in worse shape than Rubio coming into the debate. He’s won zero primaries or caucuses, fell to third in Michigan on Tuesday despite investing significantly there, and trails in the hunt for 1,237 delegates with only 54. (Rubio sits at 151.)
Republican communications strategists say needs to treat the CNN cablecast as an excuse to speak directly to Ohio voters, while making the case to Republicans nationally that, although he’s in the deepest delegate hole, his electability and executive experience warrant a second look. Kasich did that, making a direct appeal to Ohio voters with discussions about fair trade, currency manipulation by China and Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. Ohio is home to immigrants from Eastern Europe.
“He’s the only one on stage with a lot of governing experience and there is a constituency for that, albeit not what it once was,” said GOP operative Josh Holmes. “He’s also beginning to test-drive an electability message that some voters will respond to if he introduces it in the context of a critique on Hillary Clinton.”
Trump owns the leader board; he has the most to lose but also the most to gain. A measured, presidential performance would give his opponents nothing to use against him between now and Tuesday, when wins in Florida and Ohio could give him an insurmountable lead.
That could prove difficult, given the likelihood that CNN moderator Jake Tapper will ask the reality television star about his campaign manager Corey Lewandowski allegedly assaulting a female reporter — and about a supporter at one of his campaign rallies who sucker punched a protester. Cruz and Rubio aren’t likely to give Trump a rest, either.
The two previous debates saw the two senators tag team their attacks on Trump, with Rubio hitting the real estate mogul on his business dealings and trying to pick him apart for relative lack of policy proposals, and Cruz going after him for his history of supporting liberal policies, causes and politicians. It can be harder to look presidential when fighting off attacks.
The flip side is that being the center of attention allows Trump to monopolize the debate — and it’s unclear that any of his bad performances, such as last week in Detroit, have severely crippled him. The New Yorker looked vulnerable on Saturday, with losses in Kansas, Maine, and only a narrow victory over Cruz in Louisiana. But he roared back on Tuesday with decisive victories in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii.
Of course, if the field of candidates narrows after Tuesday, Trump could face stiffer competition in upcoming primaries. His strength as a candidate has been remarkable, but has still been bolstered at least in part by anti-Trump vote being split among multiple candidates.
“Trump should play rope a dope all night long, but my guess is that he can’t resist taking the bait,” said Republican consultant and debate coach Brett O’Donnell. “Trump needs to appear presidential — still a major question for many voters.”
