Abortion opponents are concerned that the controversy surrounding videos targeting Planned Parenthood might steal attention from a big, line-in-the-sand abortion vote they have been pushing for a long time.
If things go the way activists hope in the fall, senators will be forced to take a position on the broadest abortion ban for the chamber to take up since a 2003 law prohibiting partial-birth abortions. The measure would ban the procedure 20 weeks after conception, about midway through pregnancy.
No matter how the votes are parsed, there is virtually no way Republicans will gain the 60 backers they would need to pass the so-called “pain-capable” bill, which is based on the idea that a fetus can start feeling pain at about 20 weeks. They would have to win over six Democrats — an impossibly high goal — plus as many as three in their own party may defect.
But activists, emboldened by a slew of states that have passed their own bans — most recently, Wisconsin — say the vote promised by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell this fall isn’t just about getting the bill passed. They see it as a way to slowly gain more ground in the abortion wars, by forcing moderate Democrats and Republicans to either accept or reject what they view as a reasonable abortion restriction.
Now they just want to ensure that a brewing Hill battle over defunding Planned Parenthood, prompted by a series of videos exposing its participation in supplying aborted fetal tissue, doesn’t overshadow the 20-week ban, something they pushed for years before the video scandal broke.
“The Planned Parenthood focus is so strong right now for very good reason, yet the pain-capable vote is far more far reaching and more foundational,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List.
The Planned Parenthood controversy did give Dannenfelser hope her side will be able to win a few more votes than they originally expected, after Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly and Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski unexpectedly voted last month to defund the group.
Here are the swing senators to watch:
Bob Casey, Pennsylvania Democrat
Casey has long said he opposes abortion, but until last week hadn’t taken a position on the 20-week ban. But in a Sunday op-ed in his local publication, CitizensVoice, he wrote that he would support the measure while proposing additional funding for pregnant women’s health programs through the Affordable Care Act.
“I have and will continue to vote to restrict and reduce the number of abortions in our country,” Casey wrote. “I challenge my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to give pregnant women real alternatives and real support when they face this most difficult decision.”
Casey said the bill would have to include the Hyde Amendment exemptions for rape, incest and life of the mother, which Sen. Lindsey Graham’s bill contains. But it also requires rape victims to report the crime to a doctor or counselor before getting an abortion. Casey’s office didn’t respond to multiple requests for clarification on whether he supports that provision.
Joe Manchin, West Virginia Democrat
Manchin is the only other Democrat so far to pledge a vote for the 20-week ban, telling the Weekly Standard last year that “if it comes to the floor, I’m voting for it.” Manchin was one of two Democrats to vote last month to strip federal funds from Planned Parenthood clinics.
Joe Donnelly, Indiana Democrat
Donnelly was the only other Democrat to back the Planned Parenthood defunding bill. He also supported a number of anti-abortion bills during his time in the House, including a bill that would have banned insurance plans that cover abortion services from being offered on the Obamacare exchanges.
But Donnelly hasn’t expressed support for or against the 20-week ban. His office didn’t respond to questions about how he’ll vote.
Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota Democrat
Heitkamp, who is from a state where supporting abortion rights can be a political liability, has also stayed mum on her intentions. Her office also didn’t respond to questions about how she would vote.
But now there’s a chance she may seek the governor’s office next year, after Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple announced last week he won’t seek re-election. And that is fueling speculation among anti-abortion activists that a gubernatorial bid in a conservative state could prompt her to support the 20-week ban.
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska Republican
Murkowski, who typically supports abortion rights, surprised some Republicans when she joined them to support defunding Planned Parenthood last month, although she qualified her vote by saying she didn’t want the group to lose funding without an investigation first.
When asked whether she will vote for the 20-week ban, spokesman Matthew Felling said only “we’re dealing with an Alaska visit from President Obama.” Obama is scheduled to visit the state Monday.
Susan Collins, Maine Republican
Besides Sen. Mark Kirk, who is a reliable vote for abortion rights groups, Collins is the next most-likely Republican to oppose the 20-week ban. She at times has criticized her party for alienating women with its anti-abortion stance. She hasn’t taken a definitive position on the 20-week ban, although she said in June it shouldn’t be “the priority.”
