By now, the high stakes for both parties vested in the results of the 2014 midterm elections are well known. Most significantly, the races will decide whether Democrats or Republicans hold a majority in the Senate.
But the outcome of the midterm elections also will have major implications for the 2016 presidential election, in some states in particular.
Here is a look at some of the states or candidates that could be most affected by the results Tuesday:
North Carolina
North Carolina was a key presidential battleground in 2008 and again in 2012, with different outcomes each time for President Obama. In 2008, he won the state over John McCain by 0.4 percent, making Obama the first Democrat to prevail in the Tar Heel State since Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 2012, however, Mitt Romney narrowly won.
Obama was able to hang on in 2008 and come close in 2012 in no small part because of his vast and impressive political operation in the state, which focused on turning out African-American voters to the polls.
If Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan holds on to win, it would likely mean Democrats were able to successfully activate that network again, in an even more hostile election year — which would not bode well for Republicans looking to win the state in 2016.
“This is the firewall for the president’s legacy on the political side,” Rob Engstrom, national political director for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said of North Carolina during a speech last month at the University of Arkansas. “If Democrats can win North Carolina consistently, Republicans won’t win a national election.”
Colorado
Democratic Sen. Mark Udall has bet his re-election on winning over Colorado women on issues including access to birth control and abortion. Indeed, his campaign against Republican Cory Gardner has been so one-note that Udall has earned the nickname “Senator Uterus.”
The outcome of this race will be an important test case for Democrats to determine whether these issues can be weaponized against Republicans and drive voters in future elections, especially 2016.
Public polling shows that the strategy might have backfired on Udall: He currently trails Gardner by a few points on average. Early voting, too, was in Republicans’ favor.
Whether Udall is able to overcome that polling deficit and early voting deficit will be a test of Democrats’ Election Day get-out-the-vote prowess in Colorado. Democrats likely will target suburban women and Latinos, who comprise more than 20 percent of the state’s population — key demographics on which Democratic candidates could rise or fall in 2016.
Iowa
The Hawkeye State always holds a place of prestige in the presidential nominating process with its caucuses, but the outcome of the state’s nail-biter Senate race could put its own stamp on the 2016 election.
Republican Joni Ernst and Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley are locked in a close-as-it-gets contest.
Should Ernst win, she might owe a debt of gratitude to Sen. Marco Rubio’s political operation. Rubio’s trusted media guru, Todd Harris, was the brains behind Ernst’s ad campaign that launched her to fame, most notably with her hog-castration television spot. Rubio, a potential candidate for president in 2016, was also among many Republicans who campaigned for Ernst.
On a broader scale, Iowa twice voted for Obama in the 2008 and 2012 general elections. Should both of the state’s Senate seats be held by Republicans, there might be renewed hope among the GOP to win the state in 2016.
New Hampshire
Like Iowa, New Hampshire is an important early presidential primary state, and inroads made during a statewide race could help presidential contenders in 2016.
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is facing a fight for her political life against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, a Republican, who has pulled almost even with Shaheen in the most recent public polling.
A Democratic presidential primary might not be fiercely competitive if Hillary Clinton runs; but, if it is, Clinton would have a strong advocate in Shaheen should she win re-election. Shaheen’s husband ran Clinton’s 2008 campaign in the state, and Shaheen and Clinton are longtime allies. Clinton traveled to New Hampshire to campaign in person for Shaheen.
On the Republican side, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie might stand to gain the most if Brown wins. Two of Christie’s former aides, Matt Mowers and Colin Reed, have played major roles in the race, as state GOP executive director and Brown’s campaign manager, respectively. If Brown wins, Christie would have a deeper network of allies in the Granite State and would have earned chits with the state GOP.
Wisconsin
Gov. Scott Walker will be an immediate contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 — if he is able to win re-election.
That’s a big “if.” Walker is fighting Democrat Mary Burke, whom he leads by just two points on average in public polling going into Election Day.
The race, in no small part because of its implications for the next presidential race, has attracted attention from some of the biggest party surrogates on both sides of the aisle. Obama and former President Bill Clinton have both campaigned for Burke; Christie, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, has stumped for Walker.
Should Walker win, he might be at a distinct disadvantage compared with some other potential Republican presidential candidates who have been laying the groundwork for bids for months, while Walker has been focused on his own re-election bid.
