President Obama admitted Tuesday that the U.S. and other countries fighting the Islamic State have so far failed to convince Russia to join their cause, and that Russia is unlikely to drop its support for Syrian President Bashar Assad anytime soon.
Speaking in Paris, Obama said he’s hopeful that Russia will eventually see that there is no military solution in Syria, and that it’s unwise for President Vladimir Putin to get “bogged down” in Syria.
“I think it is possible over the next several months that we both see a shift in calculation in the Russians, and a recognition that it’s time to bring the civil war in Syria to a close,” he said.
But Obama also made it clear that Russia’s support for Syria is too entrenched at this point to expect a quick turnaround from Russia.
“I don’t expect that you’re going to see a 180-turn on their strategy over the next several weeks,” he said. “They have invested for years now in keeping Assad in power. Their presence there is predicated on propping him up.”
“So long as they are aligned with the regime, a lot of Russian resources are still going to be targeted at opposition groups that ultimately are going to end up being part of an inclusive government that we support or other members of the coalition support,” he said.
“So I don’t think we should be under any illusions that somehow Russia starts hitting only ISIL targets,” he added. “That’s not happening now, it was never happening, it’s not going to be happening in the next several weeks.”
The only path forward Obama said he saw is pressure from the U.S. and other countries to create a ceasefire in Syria. Several nations have called for a ceasefire and a political transition in Syria over the next few years.
It’s not clear at all that Syria will be able to meet those political calls. But Obama said if that can happen, Russia and others could be convinced to start fighting the Islamic State.
“What can happen is if the political process that John Kerry has so meticulously stitched together, in concert with foreign minister Lavrov of Russia, if that works in Vienna, then it’s possible given the existing accord that the parties have already agreed to, that we start seeing at least pockets of ceasefires in and around Syria,” he said.
“That may mean, then, that certain opposition groups no longer find themselves subject to either Syrian or Russian bombing,” he added. “They are then in a conversation about politics, and slowly we then are able to get everybody’s attention… to where it needs to be, and that is going after ISIL in a systematic way.”
