For nearly a year, former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort fought special counsel Robert Mueller’s criminal charges—tax fraud, bank fraud, money laundering, illegal foreign lobbying, witness tampering—with everything he had. Now that chapter seems to be over. Last month, a Virginia jury convicted Manafort on eight felony counts. And on Friday, Manafort finally threw in the towel for his second trial, which was to start later this month in Washington, D.C. Multiple outlets reported that Manafort has reached a plea deal with the special counsel and is pleading guilty to one count of conspiracy to obstruct justice and one count of conspiracy against the United States in a superseding indictment, which was to be filed Friday at 11 a.m. As part of the deal, Manafort will reportedly be required to cooperate with the special counsel investigation.
The news was a surprise, given Manafort has had ample opportunity and faced dramatic pressure to plead guilty all along. His longtime business partner Rick Gates has been fully cooperating with Mueller since February. His testimony, coupled with the heaps of physical evidence prosecutors produced, meant Manafort could thank his stars and crack legal team he fared as well as he did in the Virginia trial—he faced 18 charges, but the jury hung on 10 of them.
If anything, the pressure to submit seemed to be at its lowest ebb this month, as President Trump reacted to the convictions by publicly praising Manafort’s unwillingness to roll over and denouncing the trial as a “witch hunt.”
I feel very badly for Paul Manafort and his wonderful family. “Justice” took a 12 year old tax case, among other things, applied tremendous pressure on him and, unlike Michael Cohen, he refused to “break” – make up stories in order to get a “deal.” Such respect for a brave man!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 22, 2018
Given that Manafort had been working to position himself as a Trump loyalist for months, this must have been the response he had hoped for. He had managed to avoid the lion’s share of the charges, and in doing so had caught the eye of his former boss, who has not shied away from controversial pardons. So why take the plea deal now?
People close to Manafort have insisted all along he has no damaging information on President Trump to hand over to Mueller—the kind of information that he, like Gates before him, could swap for a lighter sentence. If that’s true, then it’s very possible Manafort simply doesn’t think he stands to gain much by fighting another long, expensive trial. This is doubly true considering the second trial looked like even a longer shot for Manafort than the first: the D.C. indictment, which concerns Manafort’s alleged money laundering, wire fraud, and illegal foreign lobbying, goes deep into specific, damning details, like the specific dates and dollar amounts of illicit wire transfers. And Manafort’s D.C. circuit judge, Amy Berman Jackson, has shown far less inclination to side with Manafort on procedural matters than did Judge T.S. Ellis, who presided over the Virginia trial.
One question remains: What will Trump think? It’s hard to see the president, who heaped praise on Manafort for standing strong under the pressure from his own foe Mueller, being too thrilled that Manafort is finally bowing out. But perhaps Manafort has finally decided that wagering everything on Donald Trump’s personal loyalty might not be his best strategy after all.
