Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., may hope his presidential campaign spoils Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s chances of holding higher office, but he could unintentionally disrupt former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s performance in the Palmetto State.
To listen to Graham tell it, the person most surprised by his decision to run for president may have been Lindsey Graham. While he appears to relish his status as an underdog, his penchant for challenging the libertarian wing of his own party and omnipresence on political talk shows could magnify his campaign. It’s still early, but Graham’s success could spell bad news for Bush.
Graham will likely lock down voters who would otherwise support Bush, according to Dave Woodard, a South Carolina GOP consultant who counts Graham as a former client alongside fellow South Carolinians such as Rep. Trey Gowdy and former Sen. Jim DeMint.
“I think it’s hard to say right now, but he’s probably pulling from Jeb Bush the most,” Woodard said. “If he were to drop out today, I think most of the voters go to Jeb Bush.”
It’s too soon to tell if Graham voters could alter the outcome of the South Carolina primary, but Woodard said being a native son would certainly help his chances among voters at home.
Speaking in his hometown of Central on Monday, Graham followed his sister onstage and talked about how his community helped him achieve success.
“There are a lot of so-called ‘self-made’ people in this world; I am not one of them,” Graham said. “I’m a man with many debts to my family, to you, to South Carolina, and to the country. I’m running for president to repay those debts, to fight as hard as you fought for me.”
Local polling of South Carolina Republican voters from earlier this spring shows Graham coming in behind Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. RealClearPolitics’ average of polls in South Carolina shows the two governors nearly tied at approximately 16 percentage points, while Graham registered 10.5 percentage points.
Graham was also not included in a poll that contributed to Bush and Walker’s stronger showing in the average of South Carolina polls. Woodard, also a political science professor at Clemson University, said a poll he recently conducted showed that 17 percent of South Carolinians indicated that they would be willing to vote for Graham simply because he is from their home state.
Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Chris Connelly said voters who supported Graham in the past would not give him a free pass when it comes to the 2016 presidential race.
“He’s certainly got a lot of loyal people; I think the thing that’s interesting about presidential politics is, I learned in 2012, our people expect a lot of retail politics,” Connelly said. “No question Sen. Graham is a favorite son, but he’s thrown himself into the fray of presidential politics now, and they still want to see him go around the state too, so it’s going to be an interesting dynamic.”
Graham’s campaign appears poised to focus largely on national security. Woodard said Graham might have visions of another national security hawks’s path to securing the GOP presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain. McCain, a close friend of Graham’s, has said he believes Graham will perform better than expected.
“He’s a dark horse — keep an eye on him,” McCain told reporters earlier this year. “In debates, he’ll shred ’em. Have you ever seen Sen. Graham in a debate, on the floor of the Senate? He will do wonderful. I don’t want to raise expectations, but I’m confident.”
While the only competitor Graham mentioned by name in his announcement was Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, the senator also focused on challenging the non-interventionist wing of the GOP led by Paul.
“The next president must be an informed and decisive commander in chief,” Graham said. “I’m running for president because I am ready to be commander in chief on day one…Those who believe we can disengage from the world at large and stay safe by leading from behind, vote for someone else. I’m not your man.”
In a fundraising pitch sent out moments after Graham formally announced his candidacy, his campaign highlighted his 33-year career in the military in the Air Force, National Guard and Reserves. Graham recently retired from the U.S. Air Force Reserves.
While the conventional wisdom says Graham is a second or third-tier candidate, Woodard said, if something were to happen that gravely impacted U.S. national defense, then Graham could emerge as a front-running contender.
“Things can turn around quickly,” Woodard said. “He has a lot of problems here in South Carolina given his past record, but nonetheless stranger things have happened.”
