Hillary Clinton was supposed to be a near cinch to win Ohio.
But that was before Barack Obama trounced her by 17 points in Wisconsin, cutting into the base of support she is counting on to help her win the March 4 primary in the Buckeye State.
Obama coasted to victory Tuesday with the help of voters who in many previous contests have backed Clinton. Exit polls showed that he won handily among whites, registered Democrats, people without college degrees and those earning less than $50,000. He ran even with Clinton among union members and women. Only voters over 65 voted strongly for Clinton.
On Wednesday, Clinton aides were quick to distinguish Ohio from Wisconsin, its rust-belt neighbor, but declined to say what, exactly, would improve Clinton’s chances in a state with nearly matching demographics.
“The states are different, the populations are different, the concerns are different, the demographics are different,” insisted Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson.
But Ohio, like Wisconsin, has many white voters who are blue-collar workers and union members, and it also has suffered economically due to plant and factory closings.
“I’m skeptical that the two states are that different, honestly,” said Ohio University professor Kenneth J. Heineman. “If the exit polling I’ve seen from Wisconsin holds up, she is going to be in serious trouble in Ohio.”
Ohio also has more black voters and more college students, who have typically favored Obama.
A poll released Wednesday showed Clinton with a nine-point lead over Obamain Ohio, down from a 21-point lead six days earlier.
Although Obama might be closing the gap, Clinton aides predict she will win the state, but it seems unlikely that she could rack up the kind of big margin needed to seriously dent his lead in delegates.
“We don’t expect any particular margin,” Clinton adviser Harold Ickes said. “We expect to do very well. ”
The Clintons have long and strong ties to the state, which voted for Bill Clinton in two general elections. The former president drew large crowds at several Ohio campaign stops over the weekend.
Hillary Clinton could also benefit from Ohio’s tendency to support the establishment. The state, political analysts agree, has a tendency to be less progressive and liberal than Wisconsin and would thus be more likely to pick a more familiar and moderate candidate.
Unless, of course, Ohio is swept up in the growing Obama tide, which has washed over 10 states in a row.
“I still think she probably wins but I think it’s going to be close,” Ohio University political history professor Michael McTeague said. “She’s losing and people don’t chose losers. They have a tendency, whether or not they understand the policy, to pick winners.”
