The Islamic State “has developed an external operations agenda it is now implementing with lethal effect” and will continue to try to attack Western targets as the military campaign against the extremist group squeezes its strongholds in Iraq and Syria, CIA Director John Brennan said Monday.
Meanwhile, the terrorists are getting better at hiding their plans from global intelligence agencies, exploiting new technologies and government policies put in place in the wake of leaks by former National Security Agency employee Edward Snowden to conceal their operations, he said, noting that officials would have to quickly adapt to thwart the next attack.
“I do hope that this is going to be a wake-up call,” Brennan said during a talk at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ annual Global Security Forum. “This is not the only operation that [the Islamic State] has in the pipeline.”
Though Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris that killed 129 people and injured more than 350 appeared to have been planned weeks or months in advance and were preceded by warnings that the Islamic State was planning to strike in Europe or the United States, the plotters were able to avoid detection.
“Their operational security really is quite strong,” he said.
Brennan said European intelligence agencies also are overwhelmed by the sheer number of foreign fighters flowing in and out of Syria and Iraq, something that has been a major concern of Western officials since the Islamic State emerged more than a year ago as a force to be reckoned with.
“Their ability to monitor and surveil these individuals is under strain,” he said. “There is an overwhelming number now of cases that they need to pursue.”
The threat from foreign fighters is so great, Brennan said, that he is continuing to engage with Russian security officials on how to mitigate it, even in the tense atmosphere lingering from Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria.
Intelligence professionals see the Paris attacks, along with the Oct. 31 downing of a Russian airliner over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula by an apparent bomb, as a new phase in the Islamic State’s operations that coincides with recent coalition successes that have stalled the group’s advance in Iraq and Syria.
Mike Morell, Brennan’s former deputy, told CBS News on Sunday that this new approach requires a change in coalition strategy against the group.
“I think when you put those two things together, and you put together this attempt to build an attack capability in the West, I think it’s now crystal clear to us that our strategy, our policy vis-a-vis ISIS is not working and it’s time to look at something else,” he said.
Lawmakers in Congress have been pushing the administration for months to take a tougher approach on the Islamic State, and have intensified those efforts since the Paris attacks. But in a speech Monday in Turkey, where he’s attending a G20 summit, President Obama insisted his strategy is working.
“We have the right strategy and we’re going to see it through,” he said.
Two House committees plan to take a hard look Wednesday at the problem of foreign fighters and safe havens that allow the Islamic State the security to plot terror attacks. Among the witnesses scheduled to appear before the joint hearing of the Foreign Affairs and Homeland Security committees is former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.
“Islamist terrorist groups like ISIS and al Shabaab are recruiting and radicalizing foreign fighters at an alarming rate,” Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce, R-Calif., said. “The two committees are combining expertise to press the administration to better deny safe havens to extremist movements, disrupt foreign fighter travel, and confront the grave threats posed by these fighters as they seek to return home.”
Foreign fighters are a key source of manpower for the Islamic State. A report released at the end of September by the Homeland Security Committee estimated that more than 25,000 foreigners were fighting for the group in Syria, including more than 250 U.S. citizens. The United Nations estimates that number has grown to about 30,000 from 104 countries, twice the number as a year ago.
