Next week, a populous, diverse, and politically interesting state is going to elect a new governor.
And nobody seems to care.
That’s because Democrat Phil Murphy appears to be cruising toward victory in New Jersey. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Likely Democratic” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists it as a safe Democratic gain (Chris Christie, the current governor, is a Republican). And for months, poll after poll has come out showing Murphy ahead of Republican Lieutenant Gov. Kim Guadagno by double digits.
So why is Guadagno faring so poorly? There are two big reasons.
First, New Jersey is a truly blue state. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by 14 points while winning the popular vote by two. President Obama also won the state by double digits twice. The state is racially diverse, and most of the population lives in a large metro area, meaning that its demographics favor the Democrats. The president is also not especially popular there. In September a Morning Consult poll put Trump’s approval at 38 percent.
In other words, the baseline demographics and political leanings of the state give Democrats an advantage. But, as I argued in my analysis of Virginia’s gubernatorial election, national political conditions don’t always dictate the results of gubernatorial contests. Sometimes idiosyncratic state-level conditions can swing a contest toward a candidate who might not otherwise win.
Which brings us to the second reason Murphy is the favorite: Chris Christie is very unpopular. Since Christie was re-elected in 2013, his poll numbers have dropped dramatically. The following graphic shows his approval rating in his second term (dark red) compared to the approval ratings of Christie in his first term as well as those of other New Jersey governors like John Corzine, Christine Todd Whitman, and Jim McGreevey (the light red points) at similar points in their various terms (the horizontal axis represents the number of days after the last election that each poll was conducted).
The data on Christie was generously provided by Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth Polling Institute. I obtained historical data from an archive published by political scientists Thad Beyle, Richard Niemi and Lee Sigelman. Note that the historical data is pared down significantly (e.g. I omitted governors who weren’t elected, removed polls that gave respondents options that departed significantly from approve/disapprove, etc. so not every poll or movement in public opinion is shown here).
The graphic has one main message: Over the course of his second term, Christie went from being more popular than some of his predecessors to much less popular than them.
The story of how Chris Christie became so unpopular is long (it involves Bridgegate, Beachgate, his apparent national ambitions and more), but the point is that his presence doesn’t help Guadagno’s chances. If a gubernatorial candidate doesn’t want to be associated with their party’s national brand, they can often craft their own brand or find a state-level issue to run on. Christie’s unpopularity makes it more difficult for Gaudagno, his lieutenant governor, to do that.
In other words, it shouldn’t be surprising that Murphy is leading by about 15 points. New Jersey is a blue state and Chris Christie is historically unpopular. So if you love watching close elections, I would recommend paying more attention to Virginia than New Jersey for the next week or so.
