Marco Rubio’s presidential prospects are being threatened by millions of dollars in negative advertising.
That’s not an unusual challenge for a White House contender to face. What is unusual is that the Florida senator is absorbing the lion’s share of attack ads, across multiple states, being aired by super PACs supporting other Republican candidates despite running third in most public opinion polls. The front-runner, Donald Trump, has confronted none. Literally, zero dollars in super PAC advertising have been run against him this month, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Team Rubio is projecting confidence that it can withstand the advertising barrage. On the campaign trail, the senator’s crowds are large and growing, offering reassurance that his momentum hasn’t stalled. Rubio also enjoys a heavy television presence. Months ago, his campaign purchased tons of airtime at lower rates than super PACs pay, positioning the Floridian to answer the negative ads dollar for dollar.
“Despite the millions being spent on false attack ads, Marco remains the strongest conservative candidate to beat Hillary Clinton and change direction in Washington,” Rubio campaign spokesman Joe Pounder said Tuesday. “We will aggressively promote Marco’s conservative record, his vision for a new American century, and set the record straight on these false attacks.”
Rubio isn’t the only Republican under heavy attack. His super PAC, Conservative Solutions PAC unloaded earlier this month on New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, investing $4.7 million, mainly in New Hampshire, but also in Iowa, according to disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission. Christie campaign chief strategist Mike DuHaime said the attacks are to be expected when a candidate gains momentum and threatens his competitors.
“It is further proof that Gov. Christie continues to rise in the polls in New Hampshire, Iowa and nationally,” DuHaime said.
During the period of Jan. 1 — Jan. 19, there were nearly 50 independent expenditure disclosures filed with the FEC that were labeled as “opposing” a particular presidential candidate. Outside groups must disclose whether their ad is being run in support of a candidate, or in opposition. Of those 47 opposition filings, 35, totaling $1.5 million, were classified as opposing Rubio. Christie was the subject of nine opposition filings.
The spots hitting Rubio were run by three different super PACs. Two, Keep the Promise I and Courageous Conservatives, support Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The other, Right to Rise USA, is backing former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida. There are likely much more in negative ads on the air, or in the pipeline, than has been reported, as earlier this month Right to Rise USA announced a $3 million television ad campaign against Rubio.
Meanwhile, no negative super PAC spots were reported as targeted Trump, the undisputed front-runner nationally and in New Hampshire. For that matter, only a minimal amount of critical ads were directed at Cruz, who is running second in most polls and tied for first with Trump in Iowa. Pursuing America’s Greatness, a super PAC supporting long shot candidate Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, is the only one to target Cruz.
Trump and Cruz aren’t likely to tumble from the top without pressure.
It’s going to take negative advertising. Some Republican strategists believe it’s possible that the intensifying rivalry between Cruz and Trump in the battle Iowa caucus-goers could depress their high numbers ease pressure on Rubio, and possibly other candidates. That this hasn’t happened yet is atypical, but could be because Trump is viewed as a weaker candidate if the primary goes deep into the spring than is Rubio.
“Cruz and Trump are travelling down the same right-wing populist lane and those two guys are beating each other up pretty badly. That frees up someone from the establishment lane,” said Jim Dornan, a Republican strategist in Washington.
Rubio is the leading candidate among those who are perceived as having the most appeal among the GOP’s governing, or, “establishment,” wing. But Christie is another contender for this vote. Yet like Rubio, he has endured an avalanche of attack ads from multiple super PACs, including groups backing Rubio and Bush.
