For all the political fury over President Bush’s expected announcement tonight of a “surge” of 20,000 troops into Iraq, the move would amount to a restoration of the 20,000 he pulled out in 2006.
One year ago, the U.S. troop level in Iraq stood at 160,000, which is precisely the level to which it would return if Bush announces a 20,000-troop surge in tonight’s prime-time address to the nation.
Even before the speech, the president has been criticized by Democrats for what they call a major change in Iraq policy. But U.S. troop levels have fluctuated up and down by swings as large as 45,000 since the war began more than three and a half years ago.
Unlike tonight’s expected announcement, none of those fluctuations was widely branded a “surge” by Republicans or “escalation” by Democrats. They were generally considered unremarkable adjustments in response to changing conditions on the ground. There was even less controversy when troop levels dropped by large numbers at various stages of the mission.
For example, Bush removed 35,000 troops from Iraq between May 2003 and February 2004, according to data compiled by the Brookings Institution. Over the following year, he added 40,000 troops, bringing the total U.S. contingent to 155,000 in February 2005.
That level was lowered by 20,000 troops over the following four months, only to be increased by 25,000 during the subsequent five months. That brought the U.S. presence to 160,000 troops, where it remained through the end of 2005.
Encouraged by successful elections and other signs of Iraqi democratization in early 2006, Bush withdrew more than 33,000 troops during the first half of the year.
“In early 2006 there was a sense of optimism,” White House Press Secretary Tony Snow said Tuesday. “But guess what: The terrorists did succeed in unleashing sectarian violence, and now that has created a new set of realities that one must contend with.”
Snow was referring to a wave of bloodshed that was triggered by the Sunni bombing of a Shiite mosque in Samara. As recriminations intensified throughout the second half of 2006, Bush sent 13,000 additional troops to Iraq, bringing the total U.S. presence to its current level of 140,000.
Thus, if he adds another 20,000, the president will be setting no new records in terms of the size of the U.S. deployment, which has always fluctuated between 115,000 and 160,000.
TROOP FLUCTUATIONS
The U.S. military contingent in Iraq has ranged from 115,000 to 160,000 at various times in the 3.5-year deployment. Some fluctuations have been twice as large as the 20,000-troop “surge” that President Bush is expected to announce tonight.
» Down 35,000: May 2003 – February 2004
» Up 40,000: February 2004 – February 2005
» Down 20,000: February 2005 – June 2005
» Up 25,000: June 2005 – November 2005
» Down 33,000: December 2006 – June 2006
» Up 13,000: June 2006 – present
– Source: Brookings Institution
