Jeb Bush has bought his struggling presidential campaign more time, even as Marco Rubio threatens to siphon off the financing that is the lifeblood of his 2016 aspirations.
The former Florida governor delivered a solid, issues-oriented performance Tuesday in the latest Republican debate, which calmed top Bush donors and bundlers who had become disenchanted with the direction of his campaign. Bush can’t survive without the financial backing of his vast network of GOP insiders. Their support had wavered following Bush’s disastrous showing in the previous debate 12 days earlier that included a bungled attempt to tear down Rubio.
“Everyone in Jeb World admitted that the third debate was a tough one, but he did very well this week,” Jay Zeidman, a well-connected Bush donor from Houston, told the Washington Examiner on Friday. “Raising money between the third and the fourth debates was certainly a challenge, but fortunately there was a short turn around.”
Many Bush financiers view Rubio as the future of the Republican Party, and their preferred alternative if the governor collapses. They had no interest in underwriting the Florida senator’s premature destruction in an unsettled contest led by political wildcards Donald Trump and Ben Carson. So they were pleased that Bush has abandoned that strategy since the Oct. 28 debate in Boulder, Colo., and that he declined to reprise his attacks on Rubio in Milwaukee.
It wasn’t enough to subdue the backchannel talks going on between Bush bundlers and their Rubio counterparts.
Discussions between rival donors are commonplace; many are friends and have worked together on previous campaigns. But conversations accelerated after the debate in Boulder. Rubio bundlers are quietly reaching out to ensure that Bush donors know they would be welcomed into the fold if their candidate falters. Some Bush bundlers, their confidence in the governor irreparably damaged despite a successful fourth debate, have responded with private overtures of support for their second choice.
“This is the joyous candidate, right? Whatever problems Jeb’s campaign may have are a function of Jeb himself as a candidate, and you don’t repair those by tearing down some other guy,” said a prominent Bush bundler, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly.
“Many of us think very highly of Marco,” the bundler continued. “I’m a huge fan of Marco Rubio — have been since the very, very early days. We were with him and supporting him when he was just a blip in the polls against Charlie Crist. And, he is [the] future of [the] party. So [attacking him] doesn’t seem to be an astute, timely or effective strategy. I’m hearing awful lot of folks saying that.”
Bush, 62, is running a distant fifth in most national and early state polls, and his viability has appeared questionable since he was forced to slash campaign staff and expenses after a disappointing third quarter fundraising period. The situation stands in stark contrast to what Bush loyalists expected from the two-term governor who has long been viewed by many of them as the real political star of a family that produced the last two Republican presidents.
Disappointment with Bush’s standing doesn’t equal abandonment in favor of Rubio, however. Even had Bush blown it in Milwaukee, the overwhelming majority of his moneymen would be sticking with him.
Bush financiers are too loyal, and have too much respect for the Floridian to cut ties without being formally released by the campaign. There’s also the fear factor: Bolting now, before Bush’s defeat is assured, risks harsh reprisals should he win the nomination. Beyond that, it’s simply bad form for donors to welsh on their commitments absent a legitimate reason. Some have suggested that trying to destroy Rubio at this stage of the race would qualify.
“Donors are always complaining,” said a veteran Republican operative and Bush contributor. “People are nervous, but they’re always nervous.”
Carson, the retired pediatric neurosurgeon, and Trump, the billionaire developer and reality television star, continue to pace the GOP field. But Rubio is gaining momentum.
The 44 year-old, first term senator is running third in national polls and in the crucial early primary states. Rubio ranks first in the Examiner’s presidential power rankings. His rising star has attracted the attention of major Republican donors. A substantial number of them have chosen not to affiliate as they try and make sense of the crowded and unusual GOP campaign, although “a pretty steady drumbeat of folks are moving to Marco,” one GOP fundraiser said.
Paul Singer, a New York financier and among the most coveted GOP bundlers, recently signed on with Rubio. So did wealthy California donor John Jordan, who formed a super PAC to bolster Rubio’s White House bid. Should Bush ultimately falter, Republican insiders view Rubio as the most likely destination for the broad majority of the governor’s financial network. That’s especially true of Bush’s Florida moneymen, for obvious reasons.
“We’re seeing some movement to Marco by some of the fundraisers on the sidelines,” said veteran Republican advisor Charlie Black, who is neutral in the 2016 primary. “But some will wait until after Iowa and New Hampshire, so they can pick one of the mainstream candidates to support. It’s just confusing right now.”
Rubio’s third quarter fundraising was underwhelming. He brought in $5.7 million, although his cash on hand was among the highest of any candidate. Whether his fresh momentum turns into an improved Federal Election Commission filing won’t be known until January, when fourth quarter reports are publicized.
