The central challenge of President Obama’s 2015 State of the Union address is convincing Americans the next 12 months will showcase a real turnaround for a second term defined by self-inflicted wounds, public disillusionment and calls to action that never materialized.
But experts on public opinion and those involved in crafting such speeches say that hopes of Obama fostering a dramatic change are unrealistic, given the hardened perceptions of his performance at this late stage of his presidency.
“I think opinions about the president are pretty hard,” said Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who specializes in public opinion. “The uptick in his support in [recent polls] to the high 40s came from stronger support among his core supporters. People are sensing economic improvement, but they weren’t giving substantial credit to the president.”
Buoyed by an uptick in economic confidence of late, the White House insists that Obama’s seventh such address to the nation provides a real chance to outline a winning strategy for dealing with a Republican-controlled Congress.
Obama has made similar declarations on this stage, calling 2014 a “year of action,” only to plod through another rough political stretch that culminated in the loss of the Senate for Democrats in November.
The president is hoping that a slate of executive actions on issues ranging from immigration to Cuba will allow him to shake off suggestions that his stature has diminished as a lame-duck occupant of the Oval Office.
It’s also Obama’s last chance to give the annual remarks without being completely overshadowed by a looming presidential contest.
Both supporters and critics alike agree that his speech to millions of Americans on Tuesday is about proving his recent momentum is lasting.
Obama has devoted more energy to the buildup of his State of the Union in 2015 than perhaps any year in his presidency. He spent the two weeks ahead of the speech selling his policy prescriptions on housing, the auto industry, community college, cybersecurity and expanded Internet access, including campaign-style events in nearly a half-dozen different states.
And Obama is openly acknowledging his motivations.
“Since I’ve only got two years in office left, I’m kind of rushed,” Obama said in Iowa of his approach to the State of the Union.
The success of Obama’s address will likely come down to whether he can effectively sell his economic performance, a task the president has struggled with throughout his time in office.
“I think he can make a good case,” said Bob Lehrman, a former speechwriter for Vice President Al Gore. “But that doesn’t mean the speech will lead to meaningful achievements, not by itself.”
Obama’s speech will come after kicking off 2015 with a series of veto threats to Republican bills designed to roll back his initiatives.
The president, however, will also have to showcase an effective plan for working with Republicans, rather than just flexing executive muscle.
Obama is likely to focus on trade deals, infrastructure and cybersecurity, among other issues that have garnered bipartisan support.
Still, even some of those closest to the president aren’t predicting a sizable bump for Obama after the State of the Union or an easing of tensions with Republicans irate over his growing reliance on unilateral moves.
“I think everybody [in the White House] is realistic about what the president can accomplish with the speech,” a former senior administration official told the Washington Examiner. “It doesn’t command the same attention that it used to. There won’t be a new political environment the next morning. I wouldn’t call it game-changing.”
