New polls released Tuesday indicate Barack Obama may have to abandon traditional swing states like Ohio and aim for victory in a group of battleground states with fewer electoral votes, like Colorado.
According to a survey taken Monday by Rasmussen Reports, 46 percent of voters polled in Ohio said they would vote for John McCain, compared with 40 percent for Obama. McCain’s Ohio lead increased to 10 percentage points when undecided voters “leaning” toward McCain were included, Rasmussen reported.
Obama fared better in a Colorado poll released Tuesday by Rasmussen, which placed him seven points ahead of McCain, 49 percent to 42 percent.
The new numbers reinforce the Obama campaign’s recent announcement that it is abandoning the traditional electoral map strategy for one targeting several Western states including Colorado, which has nine electoral votes compared with Ohio’s 20.
President Bush carried both states in 2000 and 2004, and while some political experts believe Obama stands a chance at putting them both in the Democrats’ victory column in November, many think Colorado is far more promising.
Ohio State University political science professor Paul Allen Beck said poor economic conditions and an unpopular war would normally make Ohio an easy target for Democrats looking for a change from the Republican administration, but he believes that is not the case in this election.
“McCain is a much more appealing candidate than the standard Republican candidate might be, and he can attract more independent and even some swing Democrats,” Beck said. “And Obama has problems in Ohio stemming from the primary.”
In that March contest, Obama was solidly defeated by fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, and exit polls showed white, lower-income voters to be reluctant to vote for him, some citing race as a factor.
Colorado, though, has been trending Democrat in recent election cycles.
The new Rasmussen poll said the race was a toss-up a month ago, though two months ago Obama led by 6 points. The poll also shows only a 3-point Obama lead when McCain “leaners” are included in the tally.
Kenneth Bickers, chairman of the University of Colorado’s political science department, said the state has registered a historic number of voters who are unaffiliated with either party but in recent elections have voted Democratic. “I think the biggest reason for Obama’s lead in the polls here is the brand problem the Republicans have this election,” Bickers said. “It is as much about a lack of support for Republicans as it is anything else.”
