With a slim lead and votes still being counted, Republicans appear to have skirted outright disaster in a too-close-to-call special election held Tuesday to replace a retired House member in Ohio’s 12th congressional district, which has been consistently red for more than three decades.
Their candidate, state senator Troy Balderson, is ahead by less than 1 percent—or 1,754 votes—a far cry from the comfortable margin of 36 percent that the district’s former congressman, Pat Tiberi, received in 2016. (Donald Trump won the district by 11 percent.) While Balderson and associated Republican groups were quick to publicly celebrate a win, his Democratic opponent, Danny O’Connor, has not conceded the race. Ohio secretary of state John Husted said Tuesday night that there are 3,435 provisional ballots and 5,048 absentee ballots still to be tallied.
Those outstanding votes make the race too close to call, and it will take some time to determine an official winner. As CBS notes, Ohio state law prevents election officials from counting the outstanding ballots until 11 days after an election, in this case, August 18. If the race winds up within half a percentage point, an automatic recount would be triggered.
Still, GOP groups felt comfortable enough with the 56-year-old’s lead to declare victory. “I’m proud that my fellow central Ohioan, Troy Balderson, will join be in Congress,” wrote National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Stivers. The Republican National Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund released statements congratulating Balderson Tuesday night. And the president weighed in:
…..Congratulations to Troy Balderson on a great win in Ohio. A very special and important race!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 8, 2018
Although they touted the race’s results, some GOP operatives noted lessons from the campaign for other Republicans up for election. “While we won tonight, this remains a very tough political environment and moving forward, we cannot expect to win tough races when our candidate is being outraised,” Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund closely tied to House Speaker Paul Ryan, told Buzzfeed News. “Any Republican running for Congress getting vastly outraised by an opponent needs to start raising more money.”
O’Connor, a 31-year-old Franklin county official, outraised Balderson by a factor of four in the final stretch of the campaign and spent $2.25 million on advertising. Balderson’s campaign spent only $507,000 on advertising, but national Republican groups put forward more than $4 million on additional advertising for his campaign combined, according to the AP. Republicans had been concerned as polls indicated a tight race in recent weeks and had hoped campaign efforts by Vice President Mike Pence and a rally hosted by Trump in the district on Saturday would push Balderson over the edge.
If Balderson becomes the race’s official winner, he will have just a few months in Congress before the seat comes up for reelection again this November.
“Over the next three months, I’m going to do everything I can to keep America great again, so that when we come back here in November—get ready, we gotta come back here in November—I have earned your vote for a second time,” Balderson said in a speech late Tuesday night.
