Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill, was one of only two Republicans to break with his party on a bill Tuesday afternoon to ban abortions after 20 weeks, a move analysts said could help prove he is a moderate voice for the state when voters head to the polls in 2016.
The Senate rejected taking a vote on a bill that would impose a ban on abortions after 20 weeks on Tuesday by a 54-42 vote. Sen. Susan Collins and Kirk were the only two Republicans to break from the party and vote with the majority of Democrats not to take up the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act.
Jaime Dominguez, a political scientist at Northwestern University, said that Kirk may be trying to play up his progressive stance on social issues with Illinois voters, who tend to lean to the left.
“He’s just trying to show Illinois, which is a very blue state, that he’s a Republican but a moderate Republican who’s willing to work with Democrats on these issues,” Dominguez said.
While many Illinois voters focus their attention more heavily on state politics, Christopher Mooney, a professor of state politics at University of Illinois, said the federal fight in Congress over women’s rights, including defunding Planned Parenthood, is an issue that has been getting a lot of attention on the state-level.
Despite Kirk’s rejection of the 20-week abortion ban, both analysts still predict Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., will win Kirk’s seat because of both her background as a disabled war veteran and the politics of voter turnout in a presidential year.
“I think you’ve got to, if you’re going to handicap it, handicap it that Democrat is the odds-on favorite as long as the Democrat is not offensive in some way,” Mooney said. “Even if you had a shining star Republican who everybody loved, a well-known figure, you’d still have to say that.”
Duckworth was leading Kirk by 6 points according to the most recent Public Policy Polling survey from July.
