With millions of dollars in his hypothetical campaign’s pocket and numerous supporters already signed on to back his efforts, Vice President Joe Biden will not participate in the first democratic debate on Tuesday. Not because he isn’t prepared, but because he doesn’t need to.
Since September, the Vice President has delayed announcing his intent. But the stalling hasn’t hurt Biden’s poll numbers — since the summer he’s held about 20% of the Democratic primary vote.
“They’re looking at the calendar, and they’re saying that this debate is necessarily where they need to strike out and they’re not feeling rushed,” a Washington Democrat told the Examiner, adding, “As the days have gone by, he’s getting closer and closer to yes but they don’t want to put him on stage unless he’s ready.”
The Draft Biden PAC, which has supported and funded Biden’s efforts from a distance, will not be at the debate this time, though they do hope to be present at the second debate in Iowa, with Biden as a candidate. Those involved in the PAC say that this weekend the Vice President will talk with his family and reach a decision, and they expect an announcement next week, likely the day after the debate. The “drop dead” date for Biden to make a decision is November 6th, the day of the first primary ballot filing deadline.
“There’s a firewall between the super PAC and anything related to the VPs office and I don’t see any rationale for anyone from Draft Biden to be at the debate,” Draft Biden finance Chair Jon Cooper said. “Obviously there are a lot of other things to focus on besides the debate; fundraising, organizing power and filing deadlines.”
Even though the Vice President has very high name recognition, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and socialist candidate Bernie Sanders have spent months compiling a competitive ground game that could be difficult for him to catch up to.
According to Cooper, the PAC will have raised around $3 million in funds when Biden is expected to announce his candidacy, all of which will be spent to support the candidate. The group has picked up multiple Obama donors as well as six Democratic bundlers who used to work for Hillary Clinton, but have since switched to team Biden.
Clinton, who has raised over $75 million since launching her campaign, began building up “leadership councils” in each of the March-voting primary states, such as Colorado and Minnesota, on Monday — a move that will boost her ground mobilization and spread her support base going into the final months of primary season.
Sanders is also gaining momentum. Last weekend he held the largest political rally in Boston history, with over 20,000 supporters cramming into the Boston Exhibition and Convention Center. Over 650,000 Americans have contributed to Sanders’ campaign, with donations averaging $30, and many supporters contributing more than once.
Between Sanders’ sweeping grassroots success and Clinton’s intense ground mobilization, the vice president is losing time and voters. But those close to him believe that may not matter. CNN said that even if Biden were to announce his intent the afternoon of the debate, there would be a lectern for him on stage.
While Joe Biden isn’t officially campaigning, he has spent the past month traveling across the country giving policy speeches and courting high-level Democratic donors. Most recently he appeared alongside Elizabeth Warren to talk economics at Georgetown University.
As his hypothetical campaign reaches the crunch time to make a decision, even the smallest details create rumors. On Friday his public schedule only showed meetings with senior advisors, inviting speculation as to the nature of these meetings.
With just days until the first debate, the vice president’s office declined to comment on Biden’s thought process. Polling shows him only 7 points behind second-place Sanders, but over 18 points ahead of Democratic candidates Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley and Lincoln Chaffee, all of whom will be on the debate stage Tuesday.
“He’s fine. He can get in to the race [without the debate],” Democratic strategist Joe Trippi said. “He’s not O’Malley polling at 1%. He should be more worried about coming up on the filing deadline in November.”
