A proposed rule to limit carbon emissions from power plants would shutter twice as many coal-fired power plants than if the regulation were never implemented, according to a federal analysis.
More than 90 gigawatts of coal plant retirements would occur between this year and 2040, with most occurring before 2020, under the Environmental Protection Agency proposal. Without the emissions limits, 40 gigawatts would come offline, said the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s independent statistics arm.
The EIA report came at the request of House Science, Space and Technology Committee Chairman Lamar Smith, R-Texas. It noted, however, that the regulation the EPA will finalize this summer could differ from the proposed rule, which aims to curb electricity emissions 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
But the EPA said the report didn’t evaluate states individually, as the proposed rule does, and that EIA said the model it used isn’t suitable for analyzing electric reliability issues.
“EPA appreciates EIA’s work to develop this assessment based on the agency’s proposed Clean Power Plan, and the agency will be reviewing the assessment as we work to develop the final rule,” EPA spokeswoman Liz Purchia said in an email. “In many respects, it will be the approaches that states and utilities adopt as a result of assessing their own needs that will determine the impacts of the program.”
Still, the analysis said the proposed rule would accomplish the emissions goal, resulting in carbon reductions ranging from 29-36 percent compared with 2005. It also said power prices would fall as demand decreases due to energy efficiency improvements and other factors.
While those results backed up the proposed rule’s Democratic and environmental supporters who say it would slow the effects of climate change, it also provided ammunition to critics who say it would crush coal.
Republicans and the industry contend the regulation would force a shift away from coal, largely to natural gas. They contend that would kill demand for coal and mining jobs.
The report said switching from coal to natural gas in electricity generation “is the predominant compliance strategy.” The report said the regulation would reduce coal production by 20 percent and 32 percent in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Average prices for coal used in power generation would drop 8 percent and 10 percent in those years as well.
“All major coal-producing regions (West, Interior and Appalachia) experience negative production impacts in 2020,” the EIA said.
The EPA, for its part, has acknowledged the regulation would reduce coal use. Coal currently comprises 39 percent of the power mix, but the EPA projects it will supply 30 percent of the nation’s power in 2030.
Democratic supporters of the regulation quickly issued a disclaimer about the report, noting it didn’t attempt to assess the environmental and health benefits the EPA has said would result from taking older, dirtier coal-fired power plants offline.
Rosemarie Tully Calabro, Democratic spokeswoman for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, noted the analysis assumed state renewable energy policies wouldn’t be extended beyond sunset dates. She also noted the report didn’t consider several compliance scenarios. The EPA, for example, has said regional approaches would offer the most cost-effective mode for adhering to the regulation.
“The model chooses compliance approaches, but in the proposed Clean Power Plan, states are given the flexibility to choose what goes into their plans, which ensures that states have the flexibility to choose the best set of cost-effective reductions for them,” she said in an email to reporters.
