The U.S. might finally be pivoting to the Pacific as the military rise of China becomes a key focus.
In the next 30 days, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter will visit Japan and Prime Minister Abe Shinzo will travel to the U.S. to meet with the White House and address a joint meeting of Congress.
In both visits, the military rise of China will be a key issue, a rise that has spurred Japan’s evolving reinterpretation of its constitution and a reconsideration of what that might mean for U.S. security in the region.
Until last summer, the interpretation of Japan’s constitution prohibited any Japanese military activity beyond its self-defense forces. But the notable buildup of China’s maritime capabilities, particularly its cruise and ballistic missiles, and the erratic behavior of North Korea have prompted Japan to expand that definition to include the potential of developing counterstrike capabilities to assist in the defense of U.S. or other allies’ naval assets based there.
In a call by Carter to Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani Wednesday, “both leaders highlighted upcoming revision of the defense guidelines as a major milestone in modernizing the alliance,” the Pentagon said Wednesday. The Defense Department has not released Carter’s travel dates, but his departure is expected within the coming days.
The potential guidelines, which would define how Japan would exercise a new defense of U.S. or other allies operating there, are controversial in Japan, and the Japanese legislative body will be debating the issue throughout the spring.
“If Japan finds an imminent threat [to an U.S. aircraft carrier stationed there] … Japan could potentially consider a counterstrike option and be considered a self-defensive option,” said Toshi Yoshihara, a professor of Asia Pacific Studies at the U.S. Naval War College.
Japan is already evolving into using a more robust self defense. Last week Japan commissioned the JS Izumo, a “helicopter carrier” the country has repeatedly said will focus on hunting submarines and providing regional humanitarian relief. But it is Japan’s biggest warship since World War II, and while the Izumo has no capability to launch fighters and is smaller than a U.S. amphibious landing vessel, it is part of a quiet, overall strategy by Japan to counter what it sees as alarming growth in Chinese offensive capabilities.
Both Carter’s visit there and Abe’s visit to the U.S. should turn the Obama administration’s focus on “what have we overlooked due to [the] preoccupation” of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in the last decade, said Dennis Gormley, a former intelligence community analyst and senior lecturer at the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. Both Gormley and Yoshihara were speaking at a hearing at the Senate Wednesday of the U.S.-China Economic Security Commission on “China’s offensive missile forces.”
The panel said it estimates China has about 1,300 short-range ballistic missiles, 1,800 long-range ballistic missiles and between 200-500 ship or airframe-launched missiles.
The concern over China’s growing number of missiles is that it could deny U.S. ships the ability to safely maneuver in the Sea of Japan or the South China Sea. As one of its counters to China’s missile development, Japan has considered hardening some base facilities and its communications infrastructure, Gormley said.
Gormley welcomed the renewed focus on China’s military growth because of the strategic risks to the U.S. if Chinese advances in its missile technology cause the U.S. to lose the ability to operate freely in the Pacific.
“We can ill afford to ignore such a development,” he said.
