Many independent analysts now predict that Republicans will take over the Senate in the midterm elections, but not by a huge margin.
Recent predictions from analysts who study congressional elections put the GOP gain at either six or seven seats. It would take six wins to give the Republicans a 51-seat majority.
(At 50 seats, Vice President Joe Biden would cast a deciding vote for the Democrats.)
Here’s a look at the predictions, from lowest to highest:
• The Washington Post‘s Election Lab gives Republicans a 52 percent chance of taking over the Senate, which would require a gain of six seats.
• Huffington Post gives Republicans a 52 percent chance of taking control of the Senate.
• The New York Times’ The Upshot gives the GOP a 61 percent chance of taking over the Senate, with the most likely outcome being a gain of seven seats.
• FiveThirtyEight, a website run by statistician Nate Silver, gives Republicans a 65 percent chance of winning the majority, with the most likely outcome being a gain of seven seats.
• Roll Call’s Stu Rothenberg believes the Senate GOP will win at least seven seats and says he “wouldn’t be shocked” if it were more.
The only outlier is the Princeton Election Consortium, which predicts Republicans will win just five seats, just shy of what it would take to win the majority.
