Elections officials and political activists predict a meek turnout today for Northern Virginia’s round of congressional primaries, despite an intense 11th District Democratic contest whose victor has a chance to end more than a decade of Republican control of the seat.
Candidates find themselves battling traditional mid-June voter apathy and persuading their supporters to return to the polls just four months after Virginia’s presidential primary. Stifling weather and poor air quality also could turn away elderly voters, who are historically some of the nation’s most reliable.
The predictions of low turnout belie the high stakes in the race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Tom Davis, who has held the 11th since he was first elected in 1994. Democratic front-runners Gerry Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, and former Rep. Leslie Byrne, whom Davis originally defeated, are seeking the nod to challenge Republican nominee Keith Fimian in November.
“People, particularly in this area, were very much focused on the presidential primary,” said George Burke, chairman of the 11th District Democratic Committee. “We hope they’re now focusing on the 11th.”
Fairfax County General Registrar Rokey Suleman forecasted turnout of only 7 to 10 percent of registered voters in the county; his counterpart in Prince William County, Betty Weimer, predicted the primaries would draw between 5 and 7 percent of voters there.
“It appears that the congressional primaries fly under the radar of most people,” Suleman said.
Party activists have privately theorized a turnout below 5 percent would benefit Byrne, because they suggest she would do better with a smaller nucleus of activists at the polls. More than that would favor Connolly, they say.
Neither campaign said they bought into that notion Monday.
“I feel good about tomorrow, but I think it’s impossible to predict what kind of turnout will create what kind of result,” Byrne campaign manager Joe Fox said. “You campaign as hard as you can up to this point, and you do everything you can to turn your supporters out.”
Connolly campaign manager James Walkinshaw accused the Byrne campaign of propagating the 5 percent idea. He said Connolly would be in “good shape,” no matter the turnout.
“The only basis for saying that is Leslie Byrne’s personal perception,” he said. “None of the polling says that she has any stronger support among the activist base.”
