Russia’s collapsing economy and currency make Vladimir Putin even more dangerous and unpredictable, Obama administration officials believe.
Putin, the Russian president, “has been playing by his own set of rules so far,” said one senior administration official. “It’s up to him to listen to reason, as it has been for months now.”
If anything, Russian officials have acted more assertively since declining oil prices brought even more uncertainty to an already-fragile economic situation in Moscow.
The Kremlin suggested in recent days that it could move nuclear weapons into the annexed Crimean Peninsula.
And Putin, who has relied on heavy nationalistic sentiment to overshadow dismal economic developments, now sees even more incentive to changing the political narrative, analysts said.
“Putin clearly has made a Faustian bargain with Russian nationalism and oligarchic predators with unpredictable consequences for Russia’s neighbors, regional security and the Russian people,” explained Andrew Kuchins, senior fellow and director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Although government officials and experts perceive that Russia is weak, Putin has proven himself time and time again as highly adept at playing what appears to be a weak hand.”
President Obama stepped up the pressure on Putin, with the White House revealing Tuesday that he would sign a new sanctions bill imposing greater sanctions against Russia. That decision came after Republicans and Democrats called on Obama to extract more pressure on Putin during this time of economic distress.
Yet, Obama maintains the authority to waive the sanctions provisions in the bill, as he sees fit. And the White House is trying to avoid economic punishment on Russia that would anger its European partners, which deal more directly with Putin and have a greater economic risk in the demise of the ruble.
Even amid their cautious approach, White House aides could not resist taking a few jabs at the apparently weakened Putin.
“If I was chairman of President Putin’s Council of Economic Advisers, I would be extremely concerned,” said Jason Furman, Obama’s top economist. “They are between a rock and a hard place in economic policy.”
At least thus far, though, Putin has been unmoved by Western sanctions, refusing to back down in Ukraine in the face of international condemnation.
Analysts said the latest slate of sanctions is unlikely to alter that mindset.
“U.S. and E.U. sanctions have inflicted considerable damage on the Russian economy in 2014, but they have not yet persuaded Putin to change course in Ukraine,” said Fiona Hill, director of the Center on the United States and Europe and senior fellow in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. “In part this is because Putin is still betting he can work around the sanctions by associating with countries that want to dilute the political influence and economic leverage of the United States.”
Added Kuchins, “How long Putin can manage this volatile situation that he has created is an open question, but we should not assume it will be brief or that whoever comes after Putin will be easier.”
