The road to victory in New Hampshire

» Barack Obama, riding the momentum of his Iowa win, expects to have the edge over Hillary Clinton among independents, who comprise 44 percent of the New Hampshire electorate. The trick will be to get them to vote in the Democratic primary. “The primary is best for a guy like Obama because it’s going to be dominated by independents,” said political strategist Tad Devine.

» John Edwards, said Devine, will have a harder time translating his solid finish in Iowa into New Hampshire votes. “John is very good in a rural environment,” said Devine, who worked on Edwards’ Senate bid in North Carolina. “New Hampshire has become more urban, more secular.”

» Hillary Clinton will look to rebound from her disappointing performance by capitalizing on a connection with New Hampshire voters going back to 1992, when her husband first campaigned for president. Political experts say the third place finish in Iowa caused significant damage to Clinton’s bid, which had banked on an aura of inevitability. “There is still a lot of fight in the Clinton campaign but the sheen has worn off,” University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala said. “Inevitable candidates don’t lose.”

» Mike Huckabee focused his efforts on religious conservatives in Iowa, but the former Baptist minister’s message won’t resonate as well among Republicans in New Hampshire, where he has spent little time campaigning. New Hampshire voters are “much less demonstrative in their faith than evangelicals and Baptists” in Iowa, said GOP strategist Craig Shirley.

» Mitt Romney has a strong campaign organization in New Hampshire but his poll numbers in the state have remained flat. As a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, he was once the clear favorite.

» John McCain stayed alive in Iowa, and now “is the one who is surging” rather than Romney, said University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala.

[email protected]