From Tahrir Square in Cairo to the halls of the CIA, Hosni Mubarak’s decision to hold on to the presidency of Egypt caught observers by surprise and created deep uncertainty about how that country’s transition of power will proceed. CIA Director Leon Panetta was so confident Mubarak was leaving that he told House intelligence committee Chairman Mike Rogers at a hearing early Thursday that there was “a strong likelihood that Mubarak will step down this evening, which will be significant in terms of where the hopefully orderly transition in Egypt will take place.” Barbara Ibrahim, the founding director of the John D. Gerhart Center for Philanthropy and Civic Engagement at the American University in Cairo, who was watching events unfold in Cairo, said she was hopeful but not as certain. “I’ll believe it when I see it,” she said, even as American cable news networks showed crowds in Tahrir Square cheering in anticipation of Mubarak’s resignation. She is the wife of Saad Eddin Ibrahim, a prominent Egyptian human rights activist and scholar who was imprisoned in 2000 after speaking out against Mubarak. “Mubarak’s resignation would be the first step of many steps,” she said. What Egypt needs is a regime change and not just the removal of Mubarak.”
How to achieve those steps was far from clear to experts.
James Carafano, senior defense analyst for the Heritage Foundation, said if Mubarak had resigned, Egyptians would have been left with few choices for a future government.
Egyptian law would require an election within 60 days if Mubarak abruptly quit, and “in that short amount of time it’s unlikely to lead to significant change,” Carafano said.
The choices would be limited to members of Mubarak’s “old guard” or people with close ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, he said.
He emphasized, however, that the people protesting on the streets are calling for economic reform, “not for Shariah law or the Muslim Brotherhood.”
The fear that other governments in the region will tumble is widespread among leaders of the Muslim world, a former official from Egypt told The Washington Examiner.
“There is tension everywhere,” the former official said. “Other nations worry if Mubarak leaves under pressure, their people will be inspired to do the same.”
the Times of London reported that on Thursday, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, had a tense phone call with President Obama warning him not to pull financial support from Egypt to force a resignation and admonishing him for siding openly with the protesters.
Other Muslim leaders are also concerned that they may find themselves in Mubarak’s shoes.
A North African official with close ties to Libya said Moammar Gadhafi left the recent African Union Summit and headed back to Libya to monitor the situation in Egypt. “He was very concerned and worried that it could happen in Libya,” the official said.
The nervous stomachs of Middle East heads of state were not improved by the uncertainty following Mubarak’s speech, experts said.
As for how events unfold in Egypt, “This is only the end of the beginning,” Carafano said. “Everything is possible, from a fundamentalist state to a democracy.”
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner’s national security correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected].
