On Tuesday, California Rep. Duncan Hunter was hit by a 47-page indictment that basically claims that he and his wife used campaign funds to pay their own bills and take lavish vacations Some of the charges might seem a little bit in the weeds, but many of them are transparently terrible. For example, Hunter’s wife allegedly suggested that he buy “Hawaii shorts” from a sports store and claim the expenses were for “golf balls for the wounded warriors.” Hunter also allegedly used campaign funds to pay for vacations to Hawaii and Italy as well as dental bills. (They told their campaign the money was going to a charity called “Smiles for Life.”)
House Speaker Paul Ryan has already said that these allegations are serious and has announced that Hunter will be stripped of his committee assignments. But Republicans may be stuck with Hunter in the midterm elections. California voters can’t write in a candidate in (ruling out a write-in campaign) and initial reporting suggests that Hunter can’t take his name off the ballot.
Ordinarily, you might expect a scandal like this to sink a candidate (and it might). But Hunter represents California’s 50th District, which could allow him to limp to re-election despite this scandal.
California’s 50th District is made up mostly of the inland parts of San Diego as well as some of the more sparsely populated areas to the east of the city. San Diego is a bit of an odd city: There’s a significant military presence, and there’s a coastal/inland left/right divide (you can see it on any precinct map of the 2016 election). And the 50th District is mostly on the right side of that left/right divide.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the district by a 15-point margin. That’s a solid margin, and it might understate the underlying redness of the district according to ACS five-year estimates. The rate of college education among whites is higher than that of the median district, and Romney won the district by 23 points in 2012. Hunter also won the district by a similar margin in 2016. The district is home to many Latino voters, but those voters may not be turning out at the same rate as other groups.
That gives Hunter a lot of padding. In 2016, he won re-election by a 27 point margin. On average, scandal-plagued incumbents underperform their projected margins by nine points (though the individual numbers vary a lot) and Democrats lead Republicans nationally by about seven points in generic ballot polls. The scandal and the anti-Trump national environment may eat into Hunter’s margins, but it’s not yet clear that it’ll be enough to make the race a toss-up or give his opponent the advantage.
And so far, that’s the consensus among some major handicappers. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted their race rating to “Leans Republican” (they were at “Safe Republican” and “Solid Republican” previously) upon receiving news about the indictments.
