The tone from the White House was quietly triumphal following Democrats’ upset win on health care, but the prospects for riding that success to greater future political gains is far from certain.
President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi were able to unify a fractured and fearful House Democratic Caucus to clinch the administration’s top legislative priority after more than a year of heated debate and falling polls.
But open questions include whether Obama’s still-ambitious policy agenda faces a steeper climb after last weekend’s bruising congressional battle, and whether Democratic leaders can keep members in check heading into the midterm elections.
“If nothing else, it stops the bleeding,” said Democratic strategist Keir Murray. “Hopefully this win will have a grounding effect where the hysteria will stop to some extent — the sky is not falling, this was ugly, but we got it done.”
Obama later this week heads to Iowa to tout health care reform, part of a larger fall campaign strategy to convince Americans the bill he is expected to sign Tuesday will work for them while it reduces the deficit.
At the same time, the administration signaled it plans to seize the momentum from the passage of health care to step up work on other top legislative issues.
“I think that the president will [move] on financial reform, on campaign finance, on getting our economy moving again, all of the host of issues — immigration reform and energy — that we’ve talked about still being on the docket,” said White House press secretary Robert Gibbs.
Obama will campaign in the fall “extensively” on health care and expects to work to help re-elect lawmakers who voted on the bill and even Democrats who didn’t, Gibbs said.
The toughest issue for Obama has not been opposition from Republicans, although the minority party has not made it easier. Right up to the House vote, Obama’s toughest battles have been with members of his own party.
After the arm-twisting that got health care accomplished, it’s unlikely some of the same Democrats, and especially those facing tough re-election campaigns, will be willing to take another risk for divisive issues like immigration reform and climate change.
“Democrats could be emboldened and decide to shoot the moon, but the trouble is they have already expended so much political capital on health care, I find it hard to believe they could go to the mat again, and harder, for an issue [like climate change] that frankly people just don’t care about,” said Frank Maisano, an energy specialist at Bracewell & Giuliani.
Maisano said a bill addressing emissions and industry would have a far more targeted, regional effect than health care reform, potentially making it a tougher sale for Obama — even if Democrats try to pitch it as a job-creation effort.
