By Chris Stirewalt
Political Editor 2/18/09
Anger continues to grow among House Democrats about how Harry Reid let Republican Sens. Arlen Specter, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins throw a wet blanket on the big stimulus party. But smarter Democrats are trying to make sure that there will be no need to compromise the next time they bring some budgetary shock and awe down on the American economy.
With just a few more Democratic votes in the Senate, Stimulus 2.0 could have money for both electric cars and contraceptives without any tax cuts for fat cats, or even cats who look a little pudgy.
With five Republican senators retiring and at least three GOP incumbents who appear to be at risk, Democrats are already raising big money and speaking in hushed, giddy tones about picking up three seats, maybe more.
Republican operatives, meanwhile, are just starting to pull out of a deep funk that set in last fall when their party lost seven Senate seats (eight if Al Franken can finally deliver the punch line in Minnesota).
Aiding the Republican rally is the growing understanding among monied members of the party that adding a filibuster-proof Senate majority to the current Democratic power could spell disaster. It wasn’t by accident that while Republicans were losing their vote to block the Senate stimulus bill, National Republican Senatorial Committee boss Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, was in Manhattan drumming up contributions and warning of the dangers of a hypermajority.
Republicans are now talking with semistraight faces about being able to put some heat on Christopher Dodd in Connecticut for his Countrywide loan shenanigans and make Reid work to keep his seat in Nevada.
Here are four of the Senate races that will help decide whether Republicans can get their acts together — or whether Democrats won’t have to worry about GOP fuddy-duddies slowing down the next stimulus blowout:
FLORIDA
After Sen. Mel Martinez decided to retire after only one term, Florida Republicans started scrambling to save the seat. Martinez only squeaked by in 2004 and the Republican brand has taken a beating in Florida since then. Most Democrats are looking for Rep. Kendrick Meek to build on the momentum Obama began in the Sunshine State, though a primary squabble could still break out.
Republican hopes and fears are increasingly focusing on Gov. Charlie Crist, who earned his bipartisan stripes appearing with Obama to stump for the stimulus. If Crist runs and survives his own primary, he would be formidable in the fall.
ILLINOIS
Illinois Democrats seem determined to give Republicans a shot at Obama’s seat. Roland Burris’ evolving memory about his relationship with Rod Blagojevich has been a gift to the state GOP. Whether Burris runs next year or not, he and Blago will be fresh in voters’ minds. If Republicans nominate a clean candidate — perhaps Rep. John Shimkus or another downstate, good-government type — they could have a shot. Democrats will be looking for a black candidate who isn’t Burris and lots of help from the former occupant of the seat, Barack Obama.
KENTUCKY
Republican operatives aren’t sure whether they want Sen. Jim Bunning to stay or go. The two-term senator has raised little money and has at times seemed ambivalent about his re-election run. That kind of foot-dragging was one thing when Kentucky was safe Republican territory. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was sweating bullets in Louisville last fall. McConnell won by a healthy margin, but the race still made party elders wonder if Bunning was up to the job. Democrats ran a weak candidate against McConnell and were surprised when the contest was competitive. They’re looking for a big state name – like Rep. Ben Chandler – to lay down a marker soon.
OHIO
The GOP was all but run out of the Buckeye State from 2006 to 2008 and Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has kept tight discipline among his own party. Sen. George Voinovich’s decision to bow out after two terms was a sharp blow to Ohio Republicans looking to hold on to a statewide office. Now it looks like it will up to Rep. Rob Portman, a Cincinnatian who served as George W. Bush’s budget director, to try to hold on to the seat. His best hope may be for overeager Democrats spend their fury and their money in their primary. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher are already in the race and more may follow.
Political Editor Chris Stirewalt can be contacted at [email protected].
