For the third time this week, Donald Trump finds himself trailing Ben Carson in a poll of likely Iowa caucus goers.
The survey, conducted Tuesday through Thursday for a Republican super PAC and obtained by the Washington Examiner, tracked with polls from Quinnipiac University and the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg. Carson led the field with 28 percent support, followed by Trump at 20 percent. Ted Cruz took third with 11 percent, followed by Marco Rubio at 9 percent, Jeb Bush at 8 percent and Bobby Jindal and Carly Fiorina, who both registered 5 percent.
“At this point, Carson, Rubio, Jindal, Fiorina and Cruz are the best bets to win Iowa,” GOP pollsters Jim McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt wrote in the polling memo prepared for Believe Again, the super PAC supporting Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. “Trump and Bush, with their high negatives, have ceilings to their vote. It is also important to note that Trump’s support in Iowa tends to be lower in surveys that screen by actual likelihood of voting and past participation in presidential caucuses.”
Jim McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 500 respondents via live telephone interviews, 15 percent of whom were reached on their cell phones. To qualify as a likely voter in the Feb. 1 Republican presidential caucuses, respondents had to confirm participating in at least one of the last four even year primary elections and indicate plans to do so next year. The poll had an error margin of 4.5 percentage points. The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, conducted Oct. 16-19, showed Carson beating Trump 28 percent to 19 percent. The Quinnipiac survey, done Oct. 14-20, had Carson over Trump 28 percent to 20 percent.
Trump continues to lead the Examiner’s presidential power rankings.
Like the horse race numbers, candidate favorable ratings in the Believe Again poll also tracked with many recent surveys — with one caveat: Trump was not the least liked of the top polling candidates. That dishonor went to Bush, the former Florida governor. His favorable rating was a respectable 54 percent, but trailed the New York billionaire real estate developer and reality television star, whose positive score was 59 percent.
Carson, the retired pediatric neurosurgeon, the most popular, sported a 91 percent approval rating. He was followed by Rubio, the Florida senator, who was rated positively by 79 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers; Fiorina, the former Hewlett Packard CEO, who registered a 73 percent favorability rating; Jindal and Cruz, the Texas senator, seen favorably by 68 percent; and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, viewed positively by 61 percent.
Other key findings from the Believe Again poll, a full copy of which was reviewed by Examiner:
- Ohio Gov. John Kasich garnered 4 percent support; Huckabee, the winner of the 2008 caucuses, stood at 3 percent; Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky was at 2 percent; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie grabbed 1 percent and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, winner of the 2012 caucuses, was at 0 percent.
- Asked for their second choice in the race for the Republican nomination, Carson finished first with 23 percent of likely GOP caucus goers, followed by Rubio (14 percent); Cruz (12 percent); Fiorina (11 percent); Trump (9 percent): undecided (8 percent); Bush (6 percent); Jindal (5 percent) and Huckabee (4 percent.)
- 28 percent said they have settled on a candidate and 26 percent said they were leaning towards someone. However, 43 percent said they are still trying to decide whom to vote for on Caucus Day.
- Bush was under water in one key metric: Only 44 percent said they would consider voting for him, compared to 53 percent who said they wouldn’t. Other top candidates’ consider/wouldn’t consider numbers were:
- Jindal: 55/40
- Cruz: 60/36
- Carson: 85/13
- Trump: 52/43
- Fiorina: 65/30
- Rubio: 64/30
